| Carbon dioxide is one of the major greenhouse gases that cause global climate change.Controlling the emission of carbon dioxide has aroused widespread concerns around the world.Among the various measures to control carbon emissions,carbon trading can give full play to the role of market mechanism.At the same time,under the background of supply-side reform,carbon trading is also an inevitable choice for energy saving and emission reduction.Among the factors affecting carbon trading,the allocation plan of carbon emission right plays an important role because it ensures the operation of carbon trading from the aspect of supply.In this paper,starting from the background of the “13th Five-Year Plan”,the initial allocation of carbon emission right is carried out from the perspective of fairness.The population,economic development and natural environment are taken into account in the allocation process.Based on this,this paper also analyzes the influencing factors of the interprovincial carbon trading quota in China and analyzes the influencing factors of the carbon trading quota in East China under the consideration of the two-child policy.Carbon price is an important influence of carbon trading quota.This paper also studies the effect of carbon price on carbon trading quota through VAR model in Hubei Province from the perspective of carbon price.The results show that: The population,GDP,carbon sink and fossil fuel reserves all have an important impact on the formulation of interprovincial carbon trading quotas in China.If a region is prominent in one indicator to some extent,it will be allocated more quotas,such as the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hunan Province and Guangdong Province.In the study of the influencing factors of carbon trading quotas in East China,the carbon emission quotas decrease with the increase of GDP growth rate in Shandong Province,Jiangsu Province and other places,and the changes of Shandong Province are most obvious.Fossil energy reserves and GDP are the main factors that affect the quota.After the two-child policy opens,the population growth rate will increase.When the population growth rate is higher than the critical value of 6.25 ‰ or 6.4 ‰,the population growth rate will no longer affect the carbon emission quota in East China.As a prominent influence factor,GDP also affects the establishment of carbon trading quotas.When the growth rate of GDP reaches 6.25%,the carbon emission quotas in East China will attain a stable state.It is also found that there is a long-term stable relationship between carbon price and carbon trading quota by studying the effect of carbon price on carbon trading quota.The rate of carbon price adjustment to the equilibrium level is greater than that of the carbon trading quota reverse adjustment rate,which also shows that the adjustment of the market mechanism to the price is more rapid,while the change of carbon trading quota is relatively lagging;carbon price has a guiding role on the carbon trading quota,but in the short term,the carbon trading quota has not been greatly affected.The impact of carbon price exacerbates the fluctuation of carbon trading quotas,but in the long run,the impact of carbon price on carbon trading quotas is obvious.Finally,in view of the above analysis results,this paper proposes to pay attention to the distribution of carbon emission rights in provinces with some special characteristics.Carbon trading quotas should be based on different population growth rates,so as to achieve the best results of energy saving and emission reduction.And the formulation of carbon trading quotas should focus on carbon price fluctuations and guidance situation. |
