The Study Of Pollution Loss Of Environmental Liability Insurance Premiums On The Basis Of Compound Poisson-geometric Distribution

In recent years,environmental pollution incidents have proliferated.In 2010,Ting River major water pollution accident caused direct economic loss of 31.8771 million Yuan,and the pollution incident of Qujing chromium slag in Yunnan caused the “death village” in 2011.The harm caused by environmental pollution makes the environment deteriorate and huge economic losses,which is not conducive to the rapid and good development of the country.Reasonable compensation for the victims of pollution is the only way to protect the legitimate rights and interests of citizens,but the huge compensation makes enterprises and the government into trouble.With the help of the developed countries to solve such problems,environmental pollution liability insurance came into being in 2008,which is based on the enterprise pollution accident caused by the damage to third parties in accordance with the law of the liability as the subject of insurance.Environmental pollution liability insurance is expected to break the irrational phenomenon of “enterprise pollution,government billing” and help victims to obtain economic compensation in a timely manner,which is of great significance for stabilizing social and economic order and reducing government burden.Insurance pricing is the basis for the development of environmental pollution liability insurance.Insurance pricing includes two aspects,the determination of premiums and reinsurance arrangements.Among them,the determination of premiums is the core of insurance pricing.The level of premiums directly affects the willingness of enterprises to participate in insurance and the operation of insurance companies.At present,scholars in the study of environmental pollution liability insurance mostly use the Poisson distribution to fit the data distribution of claims,and then determine the premium.However,the pricing of pollution liability insurance is different from the pricing of ordinary insurance products,and polluting enterprises often sign compensation agreements with polluters in private in order to avoid the high cost of controlling pollution.Polluters will also conceal pollution and avoid the unsaleable of their products.The existence of concealment motive makes it more difficult to determine the premium of this kind of insurance.Therefore,this paper takes the fishery pollution loss data of Hubei Province from 2007 to 2016 as the research object,taking the hidden motives into account and uses the loss distribution method to accurately price the insurance.The composite Poisson-Geometric distribution is introduced to characterize the number of pollutions,which can distinguish the hidden motives from the conventional Poisson distribution.Secondly,statistical methods are used to screen out the lognormal distribution as a characterization of the pollution loss intensity distribution.Finally,considering the heterogeneity of the risk of environmental pollution liability insurance,once a pollution incident occurs,the scope of the impact is wide,resulting in large losses and involving a large number of subjects.According to the development experience of developed countries,the insurance will eventually move from government financial support to commercial operation.In order to ensure the long-term healthy development of environmental pollution liability insurance,reinsurance is indispensable,which not only can disperse the risks of the original insurance company,but also help to improve the environmental pollution liability insurance system.Therefore,using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate Va R and CVa R of the total loss that belongs to fishery pollution and apply it to reinsurance pricing,and put forward the specific method of how to collect the insurance premium.The research shows that for the pollution loss data,the composite Poisson-Geometric distribution is obviously better than the Poisson distribution;the Poisson distribution will underestimate the Va R and CVa R of the pollution loss,that is,using the Poisson distribution to characterize the pollution times will underestimate the pure premium of environmental pollution liability insurance.