| Since the "11 ChaoRi Bonds" default in 2014 broke the hidden rigid redemption of China’s bond market,a series of bond default incidents have sprung up.Private enterprises have become the hardest hit area for bond defaults.According to statistics from the Wind database,from 2014 to March 2020,the balance of private company defaulted bonds accounted for 67.55%of the total bond balance.The problem of frequent debt crisis of private enterprises is worthy of attention and research.This paper selects the well-known and representative private enterprise Kaidi Ecology Environment Technology Co.,Ltd.(hereinafter referred to as "Kaidi Ecology")for case analysis.The case analysis will focus on Kaidi Ecology’s "11 Cady MTN1" bond default event that occurred on May 7,2018 and its subsequent series of debt default events.This paper comprehensively uses the literature research method,case analysis method and other research methods to conduct a comprehensive and detailed study of Kaidi Ecology’s debt default events from a macro perspective,an industry perspective,and a micro perspective.The reasons for debt default,and verified the core conclusions through empirical analysis.The logical structure of this article is as follows.The first part is the introduction.This part first introduces the background of frequent debt defaults and discusses the significance of this article.Secondly,comb the research in this field at home and abroad.By comparing and analyzing the debt default models commonly used in domestic and foreign research,the KMV model is used for empirical analysis in this paper.Based on the experience of domestic and foreign research on corporate debt crisis,this paper discusses the debt crisis of the research object from three dimensions:macro,industry and the internal reason.The second part is a review of Kaidi Ecology’s debt default.In order to facilitate the direct analysis in the third part,this part first introduces the basic situation of Kaidi Ecology,focusing on the identification of the actual controller,the change of main business,and major asset reorganization events.Secondly,review the beginning and end of Kaidi Ecology’s breach.The third part is the analysis of Kaidi Ecology’s debt default reasons.This article analyzes from three dimensions:macro,industry and enterprise.At a macro level,this article believes that during the transition from a more accommodative monetary policy from 2014 to 2016 to a "risk prevention and deleveraging" policy after 2017,companies faced financing gaps and exposed credit risks.At the industry level,this article believes that the three risks in the biomass power generation industry jointly lead to great pressure on Kaidi Ecology’s management,poor profitability,and excessive reliance on financing.First,the biomass power plant has a large initial investment and a long payback period;second,the biomass power generation industry is too dependent on government subsidies,and the policy risks are great;third,the price,quality,and quantity of the upstream of the biomass power generation supply chain are unstable.At the internal level of the company,this article believes that the overly aggressive major asset restructuring event in 2015 was the direct trigger of the outbreak of Katie’s ecological debt crisis.At the same time,Kaidi Ecology still has problems such as over-reliance on financing and occupation of non-operating funds of related parties.The fourth part is an empirical analysis of Kaidi Ecology’s debt default.This part calculates Kaidi Ecology’s default distance based on the KMV model.The results show that during 2014-2016 Kaidi’s major asset reorganization,the default distance decreased significantly,which verified the significant impact of asset restructuring events on Kaidi Ecology’s subsequent debt default.Secondly,according to the KMV model,the default distance of the debt is measured,and multiple regression analysis is performed on multiple indicators of the factors affecting the default of the debt to measure the indicators that have a greater impact on the probability of default to help investors evaluate credit risk.The fifth part is the countermeasures.Based on the full-text research,this part proposes targeted countermeasures to participants at the macro level,the enterprise level,and the investor level. |
