| China has formed the world’s largest lithium-ion battery industry system in the past two decades.In this paper,the material flow analysis method is used to study the metabolism of metal elements such as lithium,cobalt,and nickel in the lithium-ion battery system.The dynamic evolution of metal element metabolism of lithium-ion batteries in the process of which from raw material production,battery production,battery use to waste battery recycling from 2000 to 2018 was studied,and the flow and stocks of metal elements were calculated.Based on the results,the resource utilization efficiency and environmental impact in the process of metal metabolism were analyzed,and the key nodes of metal resource metabolism in the lithium-ion battery system and the driving force of dynamic evolution were identified.In the scenario analysis,the stock-driven model was used to simulate the development of lithium-ion battery industry and related resource metabolism from 2019 to 2050.The feasible measures to improve the efficiency of metal resources of lithium-ion battery systems were discussed,which can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable development of lithium-ion battery industry.A dynamic material flow analysis model of metals in Chinese lithium-ion battery system was established.The results show that the popularization of mobile phones and laptops promoted the consumption of metals such as lithium and cobalt from 2000 to 2014.After 2015,electric vehicles have gradually become the main driving force for the growth of metal consumption such as lithium and cobalt.From 2000 to 2018,the consumption of lithium-ion batteries in China increased from 1.4 kt to 547 kt.The cumulative consumption of lithium,cobalt nickel,manganese,copper,aluminum and iron were 62 kt,248 kt,397 kt,429 kt,1732 kt,2200 kt and 1292 kt,respectively,and the in-use stocks increased from 30 t,200 t,0 t,0 t,107 t,38.5 t and 216.7 t in 2000 to 18 kt,31 kt,29 kt,32 kt,116 kt,151 kt and 80 kt in 2018,respectively.Meanwhile,end-of-life(EOL)LIBs were rapidly generated,with the increase from 100 t/yr to 111 kt/yr.In terms of battery recycling,0.4 kt of lithium and 3.1 kt of cobalt were recovered from EOL lithium-ion batteries in 2018,which provided 4.2%lithium and 12.8%cobalt for the production of lithium-ion batteries.In addition,1.1 kt of retired lithium iron phosphate batteries were used in echelon utilization in 2018.The results of scenario analysis of the dynamic material flow of metals in Chinese lithium-ion battery system show that the demand for metals will continue to increase.Under the three in-use stocks scenario,the demand for lithium,cobalt,nickel,manganese,copper,aluminum and iron will be 530～830 kt,1170～1820 kt,1630～2530 kt,1630～2530 kt,2860～4460 kt,3640～5640 kt and 600～920 kt in 2050.Improvements in lithium-ion battery technology will reduce the demand for cobalt by 60%,while the demand for nickel metal will increase by 71%.In the future,China will face a situation where a large number of scrap lithium-ion batteries need to be dealt with urgently,but on the other hand,it also shows that the metal resource recovery potential of scrap lithium-ion batteries is huge.In 2050,the amount of lithium,cobalt,nickel,manganese,copper,aluminum and iron metals in scrapped lithium-ion batteries will be 350-630 kt,760～1360 kt,1050～1890 kt,1050～1890 kt,1880～3410 kt,2390～4330 kt,and 410～760 kt,respectively accounting for 65.1%～82.7%of the demand in that year.Improving the recycling rate of lithium-ion batteries can greatly promote the recycling of metals.Under three different battery recycling and disposal scenarios,compared with the results of the low recovery rate scenario,in the high recovery rate scenario,50%lithium(150 kt),53%cobalt(350 kt),53%nickel(490 kt),53%manganese(490 kt)t),54%copper(850 kt),54%aluminum(1080 kt)and 54%iron(160 kt)are more recycled. |
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