| From a global point of view,in recent years,the problem of global warming caused by the increase of greenhouse gas emissions has become increasingly serious.Excessive carbon dioxide emission is one of the important reasons for this phenomenon.Agriculture is the basic industry of national economy,and low-carbon agriculture is an important part of low-carbon economy.The innovation of agricultural low-carbon technology and the improvement of agricultural management level are of great significance to change the mode of agricultural development and management and reduce environmental pollution.From the national perspective,on the one hand,the three provinces in Northeast China,as one of the most important grain producing areas in China,have always been dominated by the traditional extensive agricultural development mode,and rely on a large amount of agricultural input to ensure the food security of China.However,with the progress of society,the disadvantages of traditional agriculture are increasingly prominent,and the development of low-carbon agriculture is imminent.On the other hand,different crops produce different carbon emissions in the production process,so it is of great practical significance to study the impact of planting structure change on carbon emissions for further reducing agricultural carbon emissions.This is one of the important reasons of this paper.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:First,the analysis of the present situation of the planting industry in the three provinces of Northeast China.Based on the resource endowment advantages and policy advantages of Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning,this paper analyzes the changes of planting area,production capacity and economic development of the three provinces in Northeast China.The results show that: the planting area and total yield of corn are the largest among the seven crops in the three provinces of Northeast China,and the total output value of agriculture and planting industry has increased rapidly in recent 20 years.Second,the measurement and dynamic change characteristics of carbon absorption and emission of planting industry in Northeast China.Based on the statistics of planting industry in Northeast China from 1999 to2018,the paper calculates the carbon emission and carbon absorption of the planting industry by using the list estimation method and the crop parameter estimation method respectively,and analyzes the dynamic change characteristics and development trend of the carbon emission of the three provinces.The results show that: from 1999 to 2018,the total carbon emissions and carbon absorption of planting industry are in a state of fluctuating growth,and the growth rate of carbon absorption is higher than that of carbon emissions,which makes the net carbon sinks of planting industry in China show a slow growth trend.Third,the impact of planting structure change on carbon emissions and net carbon sink in Northeast China.Firstly,this paper uses multiple linear regression models to empirically analyze and test the impact of planting area on carbon emissions in Northeast China;Secondly,the panel data model is used to analyze and test the impact of planting structure and planting area on the net carbon sink.The results show that:(1)the increase of rice,corn and peanut planting area in Northeast China will increase carbon emissions,while the increase of wheat,sorghum,soybean and vegetable planting area will reduce carbon emissions;(2)planting structure,fertilizer application and scientific and technological progress have significant effects on net carbon sequestration,and the change of planting structure has the greatest impact on net carbon sequestration.Based on the comprehensive analysis,it is suggested that the resources endowment and location advantages of the three provinces in Northeast China should be fully exerted under the guidance of the government,the internal structure of planting industry should be adjusted reasonably,carbon emission reduced and low-carbon agriculture development promoted. |
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