Ecological Vulnerability Assessment And Multi-scenario Analysis Of Gansu Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve

The Gansu Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve has unique geographical and ecological functions.Strengthening the protection of the ecological and geological environment of the Qilian Mountain has great practical significance for promoting the harmonious development of the Hexi Corridor Economic Belt,the western region development and "The Belt and The Road Initiative" economic belt construction.Considering that the ecological and environmental problems in the Gansu Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve are prominent at present,relevant departments must actively restore the ecological environment in this region.In order to fully understand the current status and distribution characteristics of the ecological environment of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve,it is imperative to explore the ecological vulnerability of the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve.In addition,mine restoration has attracted widespread attention as a hot spot for the restoration of Gansu Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve.In this paper,the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve was taken as the research object.Based on physical geography and human factors,nine index factors were selected.The principal component analysis was used to calculate the weight of the indicators,the ecological vulnerability distribution map is obtained and mine ecological restoration evaluation is conducted.On this basis,the Geographic Information System（GIS）technology was combined with Ordered Weighted Averaging（OWA）to explore the ecological vulnerability and mining ecological development trends under different decision-making conditions.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）The ecological environment background of the study area was analyzed,and the ecological vulnerability was mainly affected by the average annual temperature,altitude and average annual rainfall.The distribution of ecological vulnerability basically showed that the ecological environment quality gradually improved from the northwest to the southeast.The vulnerability level was classified as mild vulnerability in the northwest and central regions,and slight vulnerability in the southeast regions.（2）The average NDVI and ecological vulnerability index of the prospecting area are 0.606 and 0.505,respectively.Compared with the study area,the ecological environment of the prospecting area is basically the same as the surrounding environment after restoration and treatment.The average NDVI and ecological vulnerability index of the mining area are 0.592 and 0.557,respectively.Compared with the study area,the vegetation growth and development in the mining area are good,but the effect of ecological restoration and governance in some mining areas remains to be observed.（3）The ordered weighted average method（OWA）was used to analyze the future development trend of ecological fragility in the study area.Then three possible future development scenarios are set,namely ecological sustainability,status quo and ecological unsustainability.The mine ecological fragility index under different decision coefficients is compared.When the decision coefficient is 0.5,the ecological environmental quality of the mine will get better development in the future.（4）In general,the average value of the ecological vulnerability index of the study area is 0.5434,which is a state of mild to moderate vulnerability;the overall ecological environment is relatively safe on the whole,but the regions with relatively high ecological fragility should be paid attention.