| At present,the global average temperature is on the rise.In addition,studies have shown that rising temperatures can affect the health risks of ozone.The first path is that high temperatures will accelerate the generation of ozone from precursors and increase the concentration,and ultimately increase the risk of death.The second path is that temperature has a modifying role in the relationship between ozone exposure and mortality,when the concentration is the same,the health responses of human body to ozone at different temperatures are different.For the former scholars have given the answer.In view of the latter,to what extent does it affect the health risk,no scholars have quantified it.Therefore,in the context of global warming,it is necessary to adopt different response coefficients for ozone exposure at different temperatures,so as to realize the accurate assessment of the health risks related to ozone pollution and its spatial and temporal patterns,and to provide scientific basis for policy response to air pollution and global warming.In addition,domestic and foreign scholars have carried out a lot of research on the baseline mortality,exposure simulation and exposure response relationship for health risk assessment,which can provide sufficient support for the accurate health risk assessment in the northern hemisphere.In this context,it is very important to consider the influence of modification effect on the relationship between ozone exposure and mortality to improve the accuracy of environmental health risk results.In this study,ozone concentration data of the Northern Hemisphere from 2000 to2010 is collected.In terms of spatial comparison,it is relatively high in most regions of the United States except the north,the whole southern Europe,the Middle East and Asia.In the vertical time comparison,the ozone pollution presents the double peak type characteristic and the period of heavy pollution is concentrated in autumn and spring.The results of population exposure characteristics show that the traditional methods underestimate the level of ozone pollution,because the proportion of people living in the areas with heavy pollution is higher and increasing.On this basis,a quantitative relative risk analysis model was used to calculate the impact of ozone on human health.According to the requirements of model operation,the geographic data,ozone concentration data,demographic data,temperature data and exposure response relationship are processed and calculated accordingly.The results of model calculation show that:(1)In terms of total assessment,the results of health assessment under appropriate temperature show that the health burden in 2005 is significantly higher than that in 2000,which may be due to the increase of ozone concentration and the increase of exposed population,but the decrease in 2010 may be due to the improvement of medical and health technology level,leading to the reduction of baseline mortality,offsetting some adverse effects.The results of health assessment under extreme temperature show that the benefit from considering the effect of temperature modification in 2005 and 2010 is relatively close,but the positive benefit from the appropriate temperature in 2000 is less than half,which may be due to the high proportion of people exposed to high concentration and extreme temperature in 2000.In addition,the development trend of the two before and after considering the temperature modification effect from 2000 to2005 is totally different,and the subversive conclusion is drawn,which greatly shows that considering the temperature modification effect is of great significance to accurately quantify the health risk of ozone.From 2005 to 2010,the conclusion is consistent,indicating that the proportion of people exposed to high concentration and extreme temperature has decreased.(2)In terms of spatial distribution,the results of population exposure showed that the high value areas are concentrated in the middle and high latitudes(20 ° N-60 ° N)of the northern hemisphere.In addition,the results of health assessment under the appropriate temperature show that the negative benefits brought by population aggregation to the environment are greater than the positive benefits,and there is a certain positive correlation between the number of population and the degree of ozone pollution.The number of premature deaths in China and India is much higher than in other countries because of their high ozone exposure levels and large population bases.The results of health assessment under extreme temperature show that in 2005,it is first observed that the health burden caused by ozone increased in some countries after considering the temperature modification effect,because the negative benefits brought by extreme temperature exceeded the positive benefits brought by the appropriate temperature.Most of these countries are located in high latitude areas of Asia and Africa.(3)In terms of development trend,the results of population exposure characteristics show that from 2000 to 2010,Pakistan,India,China and Bangladesh showed a monotonous upward trend of ozone concentration,and the level of ozone concentration has been at a high level,suggesting that some countries in Asia are facing a significant increase in ozone pollution.The United States is the country showing a downward trend,so it can be inferred that the prevention and control of ozone pollution has achieved effective results.The assessment results under appropriate temperature show that there are five countries with inverted U-shaped health burden caused by ozone from 2000 to 2010,and four countries with U-shaped health burden.There are no countries showing a monotonous upward or downward trend.In addition,the assessment results under extreme temperature show that,except for India and Indonesia,the development trend of other countries before and after considering the temperature modification effect is completely opposite,which may be because the health risk of ozone pollution after considering the population power in 2005 is significantly lower than before.In this paper,the number of premature ozone deaths under temperature modification is evaluated for the first time,which shows that considering the effect of temperature modification has an important impact on accurately quantifying the health risk of ozone,and has certain academic value.The research results can provide scientific basis for quantitative and accurate risk management,help to protect public health,and provide basis for formulating air pollution prevention and control policies. |
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