| In recent decades,research in the field of environmental epidemiology at home and abroad has developed rapidly,and the impact of air pollution on population health has been extensively studied by scholars.At present,a large number of toxicological studies have found that even short-term exposure to air pollutants may have certain negative effects,especially the occurrence of respiratory diseases.The negative health effects caused by air pollution have not yet reached a consistent conclusion.The study area,model selection,and choice of control variables will all have an impact on the research results.Domestic research on the impact of air pollution on public health mainly focuses on areas with more prominent climate and environmental conditions or severe air pollution.However,in areas where climate change or environmental air pollution is not obvious,the adverse health effects caused by it will gradually At the same time,there is insufficient research evidence related to the impact on public health.This study takes Kunming as the research area and uses air pollution data,meteorological data data and respiratory system disease drug usage data from January 2011 to December 2019 to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the health damage caused by air pollution.conclusion as below:（1）Based on the atmospheric monitoring data from January 2011 to December 2019,the overall air pollutants in Kunming are showing a positive trend.The total amount of pollutants is slowly decreasing year by year,but it often fluctuates and rises.Among them,the large IQR of ozone and particulate matter indicates that their concentration fluctuates sharply.SO2and NO2have been reduced to near the national first-level concentration limit in the study area,and occasionally rebounded;The CO concentration is at a low level,well below the first-level limit;it is worth noting that the airborne particulate matter pollution in Kunming is more serious,and after the overall concentration level was greatly reduced in2014,it is still within the first-level and second-level limit,often exceeding the limit.The secondary concentration standard has not seen a decreasing trend;Pay special attention to the changes in atmospheric ozone concentration.The concentration is low but different from other atmospheric pollutants.The ozone concentration in Kunming City has been increasing year by year and has not been well controlled.It is still at a low concentration level,but whether atmospheric pollutants cause health of the population.（2）The concentration of air pollutants has a weak correlation with drug usage,and there is a negative correlation trend,which is in line with common sense.The correlation coefficients of drug usage with SO2,NO2,PM10,CO,O3＿8h,PM2.5were-0.686,-0.188,-0.160,-0.162,-0.145,0.004.The problem of particulate matter in air pollutants is more prominent,and the correlation analysis results show that it is reasonable and necessary for meteorological factors to be the main covariate.Meteorological factors not only show a good correlation with dependent variables,but also have a complex relationship with air pollutants.Discussions were conducted in the dry and wet seasons and pollen seasons.It was found that the disease burden of the population caused by the dry season was much higher than that of the wet season or even a complete sequence.Although there are seasonal factors,it mainly affects air pollutants and then affects the disease.The crowd creates a burden.The correlation between pollen seasons is also significant,which amplifies the burden of disease caused by air pollution to a certain extent.（3）The seasonal decomposition of the key variables in the time series shows that the use of respiratory drugs is the month of high frequency in the annual cycle from October to January of the following year.Relatively speaking,the use of May-August is at the lowest level,and compare it with the periodic characteristics of air pollutants.In the SO2annual cycle,it reaches the highest concentration value in November and reaches the lowest concentration level in June until February of the following year;NO2concentration fluctuates greatly,from November to April of the following year,which is the highest level throughout the year,and suddenly decreases in February.Reached its lowest point in June;The change trend of atmospheric particulate matter PM10and PM2.5in the annual cycle is similar.From November to April of the following year,the concentration is high,and from June to September is the lowest in the whole year.The remaining months are all at lower pollution levels;October in the CO annual cycle April is the month of high concentration of the following year,July reaches the lowest level of the whole year,and the remaining months are relatively low;The ozone concentration that has been increasing year after year fluctuates greatly.The highest concentration is from February to May,and the seasonal factor can reach 72%in April compared with the lowest in December.Trend analysis shows that there is an obvious causal relationship between drug usage and air pollution factors,and the correlation is strong.At the same time,the cyclical seasonal trend is an important covariate in the study,and it has a synergistic effect in the same direction with air pollution.The results of air pollution factors after seasonal decomposition show that the seasonal cycle trend will promote the growth of air pollution factors,causing more intense pollution,and directly magnifying the degree of regional pollution,but it will inhibit the production and concentration of O3.（4）A comparative analysis of alternative indicators of different health effects,taking gastrointestinal disease medications and sports diseases as examples of diseases that have not been proven by relevant studies to be related to air pollution.It is found that it has nothing to do with the periodic changes of air pollution.At the same time,in the time period that should have caused a heavy disease burden,the seasonal trends of the drug usage for these two types of diseases have not changed significantly,which contradicts the analysis results of the pollen period and the dry and wet seasons.It can be seen that the choice of the population’s health outcome is appropriate and reasonable for respiratory diseases.（5）Based on the previous research results,this study finally obtained two variables Y1 and Y2 without multicollinearity through principal component analysis of air pollution factors.Meteorological factors were also introduced into the model in the form of smooth functions.Machine learning and manual adjustment methods set the degree of freedom of the function.A model with reasonable fitting effect is obtained,and the exposure response relationship is obtained according to the smooth function,and the relative risk of pollutants is calculated.The study found that the partial correlation of air pollution factors has been significantly improved after principal component analysis,and the substitution model has also passed the test.The explanatory power is 73.5%,R2value is 0.705,the relative risk is calculated.When the pollutant increases by 1μg/m3,the natural logarithm of the drug usage independently caused by SO2,NO2,PM10,PM2.5exceeds the ER value and the confidence interval is 0.244%（95%CI 0.263,1.339）,0.236%（95%CI 0.233,4.313）,0.206%（95%CI0.013,4.375）,0.210%（95%CI 0.100,10.028）,When CO increases by 1mg/m3,the natural logarithm of drug usage increases by 0.227%（95%CI 0.948,1.060）。In the same way,when the pollutant changes by 10μg/m3,the natural logarithm of the drug usage independently caused by SO2,NO2,PM10,PM2.5exceeds the excess increase in the ER value respectively2.460%,2.380%,2.080%and 2.116%,The natural logarithm of the CO increase by 10mg/m3drug usage increased by 2.290%,and the results were statistically significant.The results suggest that although the level of air pollution in Kunming is relatively low,some air pollutants have not reached the safety limit,and the burden of disease caused by exposure to low concentrations of air pollution cannot be ignored.The sensitivity of population health effects is low when air pollutants are at low concentrations for a long time.Although the increase in drug use caused by changes in concentration levels is not as good as the results of studies in some heavily polluted areas,it can also be seen from the atmosphere.There is no so-called lower limit of safety value for pollution. |
PDF Full Text Request