Research On Influencing Factors Of Transaction Price In Chinese Carbon Market

The severity of the global climate problem has become increasingly prominent,governments and organizations around the world have taken the carbon market as a powerful tool to control greenhouse gas emissions.The carbon market transaction price,as a barometer of the carbon trading market,can most directly and effectively reflect the operation of the carbon market.Chinese carbon market started to set up pilot projects in 2013 and has successively carried out carbon market pilot work in eight provinces and cities.A unified national carbon market will be established in 2021,and it will be listed for trading soon.Studying the factors affecting carbon market prices has a certain guiding role for my country’s unified carbon market pricing.In this paper,theories related to carbon emission rights are introduced by combining theories with empirical evidence,and the development status of the domestic carbon market is described in detail.The research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the influencing factors of the carbon market trading price are summarized.When studying the influencing factors of Chinese carbon market transaction price,taking into account the differences in geographical location and economic development of various regions,the research selectes five carbon trading markets,namely Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Hubei and Chongqing carbon markets.At the same time,based on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars,this paper chooses 12 variables including domestic and foreign energy prices,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index,industrial index,new energy index,average temperature of each city,and air quality index are selected as influencing factors.By constructing Vector Autoregression Model(VAR)and Vector Error Correction Model(VECM),the model uses the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to analyze the influence direction,degree of influence and duration of influence on the transaction price of various carbon market.Finally,it summarizes the research results of the five major carbon market influencing factors and provides feasible suggestions for the stable development of the unified carbon market that will be launched online in China.The empirical research results show that the biggest influencing factor of each pilot carbon market transaction price is its own price.In addition,the degree and direction of influence on the fluctuation of its carbon market transaction price are different from each other.The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly,energy price is the main factor that affects the carbon market transaction price;Secondly,changes in temperature will cause fluctuations in carbon prices to a certain extent;Thirdly,the development level of the new energy industry will positively affect the carbon market transaction price;Finally,the EU carbon transaction price has no obvious impact on my country’s carbon market transaction price.Finally,based on the above empirical analysis results,relevant feasibility suggestions for stabilizing my country’s carbon market transaction prices are put forward,including stabilizing the development of the traditional energy industry and the new energy industry,strengthening the awareness of environmental protection,and actively participating in international carbon market transactions.