Simulation And Prediction Of Ecological Space In The Eco-economic Zone Of Hanjiang River Based On FLUS Model

Ecological space is an integral part of national space and a material carrier of human social and economic activities.Exploring the development law and future development pattern of ecological space has important Has important theoretical and practical significance for regional land space planning and environmental protection policy formulation,and is also conducive to the construction of regional ecological civilization and sustainable development.In this paper,the Hanjiang River Eco-economic zone with unique geographical location is selected as the research object,and according to the regional differences of the Hanjiang River Eco-economic zone,and it is further divided into two sub-regions according to the regional differences of the Hanjiang ecological economic zone,which are the Danjiangkou reservoir area and the upstream area mainly based on ecological conservation and the The middle and lower reaches of economic development.At the same time,four development scenarios of"production priority","living priority","ecological priority"and"comprehensive optimization"were set based on the development needs of the Hanjiang River Eco-economic zone,and then based on the data of land use in 2010 and 2015 and the data of 16 driving factors data,the FLUS model was used to conduct a multi-scenario simulation study on the ecological space of the Hanjiang River Eco-economic Zone in 2035.The number and spatial changes of the ecological space were analyzed from different scales and different development directions.The main The research results are as follows:(1)The results of the FLUS model for the multi-scenario simulation of the ecological space of the Hanjiang ecological economic zone are highly close to its actual situation in number and space.The accuracy test Kappa values at different scales are higher than 0.96,indicating that the FLUS model has a high-precision prediction of the future development trend of ecological space.(2)From the perspective of changes in quantity(area):At the whole basin scale,the ecological space area of the Hanjiang River Eco-economic Zone shows an increasing trend only under the ecological priority scenario,which increased by 1769km~2from 2015 to 2035,under the production priority,life priority and comprehensive optimization scenarios the ecological area showed a decrease,which are 1946km~2,1097km~2,and 226km~2.From the simulation results of the sub-regions,the ecological space in the Danjiangkou reservoir area and the upstream area Hanjiang River Eco-economic Zone is increasing under the ecological priority and comprehensive optimization scenarios,respectively increasing by 530km~2and429km~2,and the area under the production priority and life priority scenarios has decreased by731km~2and 455km~2respectively;The results in middle and lower catchment of Hanjiang River Eco-economic Zone is consistent with the global simulation results.The area increased by 396km~2under the ecological priority scenario,and decreased by 408km~2,709km~2,and112km~2under the production priority,life priority,and comprehensive optimization scenarios.(3)From the point of view of the distribution of spatial changes:the overall characteristics of overall stability and local changes.The ecological space is mainly distributed in the Qinba Mountains,the central Hubei hills and other regions.Among them,the forest resources in Daba Mountain,Tongbai Mountain and Dahongshan are rich and concentrated,which is a stable area of ecological space.The valley areas in the middle hills and the rivers and lakes in the Jianghan Plain are areas of significant change;specifically,the ecological spatial changes in the Shangluo,Nanyang,Xiangyang,Jingmen,Luoyang,and Han areas are most obvious.The changes in ecological space are closely related to human activities.The reduction areas are mostly located in the urban construction belts along the river and the main transportation lines.The expansion areas are mainly distributed in ecological protection areas such as reservoirs and mountain areas.(4)From the changes in the types of land use within the ecological space:grassland is the most frequently changed ecological space,followed by forest land and water.Grassland is mainly transformed into production space,and forest land and water area are mainly transformed into living space;Danjiangkou reservoir area and upstream area of the Hanjiang River Eco-economic Zone is mainly converted from grassland and forest land,and middle and downstream areas of the Hanjiang River Eco-economic Zone is mainly converted from water area.