Study On Synergy Security Of Water-Energy-Food Correlation System In Yangtze River Economic Belt

As the basic resources for human survival,water,energy and food play an important role in social progress and human development.However,the continuous expansion of the global population,economic growth and the rapid development of industrialization have put enormous pressure on the production,consumption and use of water,energy and food.The process of social development is often accompanied by the impairment of ecosystem functions,which in turn has an indirect negative impact on water,energy and food security.Water and energy resources are the basis for food production,while the production and use of energy also need to consume a large amount of water resources,the three interact with each other and are interdependent.As an interrelated and interlocking system,the healthy and sustainable development of water,energy and food has become an important concern.The Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important agricultural region in China,with a large amount of water resources and abundant types of energy resources,and is also a strategic location for China’s economic development.So it is important to pay attention to the synergy security of the waterenergy-food correlation system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt for regional economic development.This paper firstly elaborates the framework of water-energy-food correlation system,as well as the theory of synergy,and proposes the concept and connotation of synergy security of the correlation system.Secondly,using the pressure-state-response(PSR)model,27 indicators are selected to construct the evaluation index system of water-energy-food correlation system of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and the division of indicator thresholds is carried out,and the classification criteria of waterenergy-food correlation system and each subsystem level are calculated by random forest model to evaluate the security level of Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2017.Then,the synergic relationship within the water-energy-food correlation system of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are further analyzed to identify the key factors of the system and explore the internal operation laws and mechanisms of the system.Finally,combining the findings above,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed from the perspective of improving the synergy security of the system,with a view to providing references for the management of the water-energy-food correlation system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Due to the improvement of water and energy utilization efficiency and the advancement of agricultural production technology,the level of water-energy-food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt improved significantly from 2008 to 2017.Each province performs differently in different subsystems,with water resources security being better in the upper reaches and Zhejiang and Shanghai in the lower reaches,and food security being better in the middle and lower reaches.The level of energy security is high in Sichuan,Yunnan,and Guizhou in the upper reaches and Shanghai and Anhui in the lower reaches.(2)The upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic have formed a relationship in which energy is the dominant system and food is the controlled system;the middle reaches have formed a relationship in which energy drives the food system and food drives the water system;the lower reaches have formed a relationship in which energy is the dominant system and water and food are both controlled systems;and the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole has formed a relationship in which energy is the dominant system and water is the controlled system.(3)No matter from the perspective of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole,or from the spatial distribution of the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the energy security is the key factor of the water-energy-food correlation system and is the variable which dominant the co-evolution of system.However,in terms of the interaction relationship between subsystems and subsystems,except for the energy system and food system in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,which have formed a good synergistic relationship to promote each other,systems of other regions have not yet formed good mutual promoting relationships.