Analysis On The Peak Of Embodied Carbon In The Manufacturing Export Trade Of Yangtze River Economic Belt Under The "Dual Carbon" Targets

Facing the severe challenge of global warming,my country clearly put forward the "dual carbon" goal of peaking carbon emissions in 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality in 2060 in early 2021.my country is a major trading country in the world,and it inevitably generates embodied carbon in the process of trade with countries around the world.Among them,the embodied carbon in export trade is the environmental pressure to meet the consumer demand of other countries’ products.Manufacturing is the basis for my country to carry out commodity trade,and the Yangtze River Economic Belt occupies an important position in my country’s manufacturing export trade with its strong economic strength.Provide a realistic reference for the realization of the " dual carbon" goal.After sorting out the calculation methods of embodied carbon and related researches on carbon peaking,by constructing a multi-regional input-output model,using the energy consumption and export trade data of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as well as the interregional input-output table,each industrial sector in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Measure the embodied carbon of export trade with provinces and cities,and further use the decoupling coefficient and the embodied carbon intensity of export trade to construct a peak evaluation system for embodied carbon in export trade,analyze the peaking situation of industries,provinces and cities,and finally decompose through the structure.The analysis method decomposes the effects of the above results and puts forward policy recommendations accordingly.The following main conclusions are drawn:（1）The total amount of embodied carbon emissions in the export trade of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is relatively large.There is a large difference in the embodied carbon emissions of export trade among sectors,and the metal smelting and suppression sector is the industrial sector with the highest embodied carbon emissions in exports;as far as each province and city is concerned,the difference between the total emissions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in terms of the total carbon emissions of export trade between provinces and cities Larger,among which Zhejiang Province has the largest emissions and Guizhou Province the least.（2）Peak analysis found that among the various industrial sectors of the manufacturing industry,five sectors including sector 2（textile industry）and sector 9（metal products）achieved the peak of embodied carbon in export trade from 2006 to 2019;Eight sectors including 1（food and tobacco）,sector 3（wood and furniture）,sector 4（paper printing and cultural,educational and sporting goods）are in the plateau before peaking;sector 10（general and special equipment）,sector 15（others）Manufacturing)has not yet achieved the peak of embodied carbon in export trade.Among the provinces and cities,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Anhui,Jiangxi,Hunan,and Yunnan have all achieved the peak of embodied carbon in export trade;Shanghai is temporarily at the plateau of embodied carbon;Hubei and Chongqing City,Sichuan Province,and Guizhou Province have not achieved the peak of embodied carbon in export trade.（3）The results of structural decomposition analysis show that technology effect is the main driving factor for industrial sectors and provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt to achieve the peak of embodied carbon in export trade.For the industrial sectors and provinces and cities in the plateau period,the technical effect has not been able to continue to play a role in suppressing the carbon embodied in export trade.In the negative alternation,the scale effect promotes the embodied carbon generation in the export trade of industrial sectors and provinces.For industrial sectors and provinces that have not reached the peak,the changing roles of technology effects and structural effects generally promote the generation of embodied carbon in export trade,while the scale effect is always that industrial sectors and provinces fail to achieve the peak of embodied carbon in export trade main factor.In order to achieve the overall peak of the embodied carbon in the export trade of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,it is necessary to take various measures,including: promoting technological progress and building a low-pollution export trade mechanism;optimizing the trade structure and realizing the balance between trade scale and embodied carbon emissions.Balance;strengthen technical exchanges and promote the application of low-polluting technologies across industries,departments and provinces and cities;formulate differentiated emission reduction policies based on different peak conditions.