| The new round of electricity market reform in China has formed a market structure of "multi-buyer-multi-seller" by giving some users the right of choice and deregulating the selling side.Electricity retailers are of great importance in the market while they are in lack of operating experience and theoretical knowledge.This paper paper aims to study the decisionmaking process of a retailer in electricy procurement and selling.The most important issues in the decision-making of purchasing and selling electricity are: the quantity of electricity,the purchasing portfolio in the wholesale market and the retail price.In the competitive retail market,the price of retaliers affects the quantity of electricity consumed by the end costomers;there are many kinds of transactions in the wholesale market,and the profit and risk aversion performance of each transaction are different.Retaliers should also determine its power purchasing portfolio in different transaction types according to its risk tolerance.End uses’ right of option in China is gradually being liberalized,and there are some users with the right of option who do not use the right.Therefore,before deciding the quantity of electricity purchased,the reailer must determine the electricity quantity in the market.Based on system dynamics,considering the impact of macro-economy,policy,environment,power substitution and power grid development on social electricity consumption,this paper establishes a prediction model of social electricity consumption.According to the historical data of Guangdong Province,this paper establishes a Markov chain-based market electricity consumption prediction model and verifies the accuracy of the model.Retailers in the retail market compete with others to seize market share.According to the user’s purchasing cost and utility,considering the user’s preference for non-price factors and the switching cost between different power companies,this paper establishes a user response model.The competition model of duopoly power selling companies based on Hotelling model is established and extended to the competition of multiple power selling companies.The equilibrium results in monopoly market,dominant market of one power selling company and perfect competition market are discussed,and the influence of each parameter is quantitatively analyzed.Considering the current development of electricity market reform in China and the development needs of the future period,this paper considers four ways for retailers to puechase electricity: 1)bilateral contracts;2)spot market;3)option contracts;and 4)start its self-owned generating units.For the cost and benefit model of power selling company,CVa R model is used to quantify the risk of purchasing and selling electricity,typical load curve is used to decompose the forecasted total load,GARCH-jump model is used to simulate spot price,and the profit-risk objective function of power selling company is established.In order to compare the risk aversion performance of various ways of purchasing electricity,this paper designs five scenarios for power companies to obtain electricity: 1)only from the spot market;2)through the spot market and bilateral contracts;3)through the spot market and options contracts to obtain electricity;4)through the spot market and start its selfowned generating units to obtain electricity;5)through the spot market,bilateral contracts,option contract and start its self-owned generating units.The results show that the abundant kinds of transactions in the market is not only conducive to improving the expected earnings of power companies,but also to improving the utility of users. |
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