Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Based On ARFIMA Hybrid Model

With the proposal of the Chinese dream and the development of poverty alleviation,people’s living standard,social development and overall national strength have been further improved and enhanced,and the number of motor vehicles has also increased.However,the development of road construction level,parking infrastructure and traffic control and management cannot keep up with the increase in the number of motor vehicles,resulting in great conflicts and many traffic problems.At present,one of the most realistic and effective way of solving traffic problems is to use modern information technology and intelligent transportation systems to strengthen traffic control and guidance.The most critical part of traffic control and guidance is to accurately grasp the state of traffic flow,and short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the most efficient way to determine the state of traffic flow.Based on this importance,this study mainly concentrates on the prediction of short-time traffic flow.Firstly,Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(ARFIMA)model was initially applied to short-term traffic flow prediction.ARFIMA model is a further improvement on the existing time series model,which mainly explores the influence relationship between sequence values that are far apart,i.e.,the long-term memory of the series.The results showed that the model can be applied to short-term traffic flow prediction.Second,in this paper,short-term traffic flow was predicted through nonlinear autoregressive(NAR)dynamic neural network,and the predicted results were taken as comparison terms.Then,by aiming at the linear and nonlinear components in the traffic flow time series,ARFIMA model and NAR neural network model were combined to form a hybrid model to study the traffic flow.Finally,the analysis results revealed that the hybrid model was more applicable and accurate than the single model.Short-term traffic flow prediction can help travelers reasonably plan travel paths,shorten travel time,improve travel experience,and then alleviate various social problems caused by traffic congestion,making us dominate the transportation system,which is of great significance to maximize the performance of the road network and solve urban traffic problems.