Research On Operation Resilience Assessment Of Subway Tunnel System Based On Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)

In recent years,with the rapid development of metro investment in China,the scale of metro construction has been further expanded.Subway tunnel system is a major urban underground system,which subject to internal and external coupling factors.Once the damage occurs in the operation period,it will be difficult to maintain and affect the normal operation of the subway and the safety of the tunnel seriously.The traditional research methods of subway safety assessment mainly focus on passive research,such as reliability and risk management,which emphasizes the risk control before the accident,and pay little attention to the recovery after the accident.When considering economy and safety comprehensively,resilience has become an important concept to describe the response performance of complex systems under emergencies,which emphasizes the ability to absorb,adapt and recover from emergencies.Therefore,this paper develops the research on operation resilience assessment of subway tunnel system.Based on the theory of resilience,this paper chooses subway tunnel system as the research object and analyse the challenge of the current safety assessment of operational subway.Then combining with the resilience theory of other scholars,this paper concludes the concept of the operation resilience of subway tunnel system,and transforms it into the research of the ability of absorbing,adaptability and recovery,then analyzes the change characteristics of subway tunnel system during operation period.Secondly,based on the data of subway on-site monitoring points,this paper selects the converged-deformation value of the tube pieces as the evaluation index.Then this paper obtains the structural performance change curve of subway tunnel through the establishment of ARIMA time series model.Therefore the structural performance of subway tunnel can be predicted and analyzed,thus to have a preliminary understanding of the operation toughness of subway tunnel system.Based on the performance curve,this paper adopts the method of probability analysis to evaluate resilience,and discuss the influence factors of operation resilience of subway tunnel system.After determining the node variables and the relationship between nodes,this paper develops the Dynamic Bayesian Network.Then this paper completes the estimate of operation resilience assessment of subway tunnel system,through the computation of conditional probability.Finally,this analyses a section of subway tunnel with structural disease,and gives some suggestions of improving the operation resilience of subway tunnel system.