Research On Credit Risk Of Green Credit

Green credit is an emerging loan business that plays an important role in achieving sustainable development in China.As a pioneer and leader in green credit,commercial banks use financial levers to restrict corporate behavior,achieve effective allocation of funds,and promote the development of low-carbon and environmentally protection enterprises.Green credit risk is an important part of bank risk prevention and control.At present,most of its research in China is from the perspective of commercial banks,and there is a lack of analysis of the credit risk of green credit source industries,especially the green credit risk prevention mechanism has yet to be improved.This article analyzes the credit risk of green credit from the perspective of the new energy industry,aims to prevent the risk of green credit by commercial banks by reducing the credit risk of the source industry.Based on the existing research,this paper defines the concepts of new energy industry,green credit and their credit risk,explores the formation mechanism of green credit risk,analyzes the development status of green credit risk,and provides a solid theoretical basis for the full text.The empirical part uses the Chinese ST and non-ST enterprises as samples to modify the original KMV model,and innovatively obtains the long-term debt default coefficient suitable for the domestic market.On this basis,the overall credit risk characteristics of the new energy industry are analyzed through the KMV model measurement and horizontal and vertical comparison.The case part analyzes the ST Kaidi debt default event while testing the applicability of the revised KMV model in the case analysis of new energy companies,which provides a reference for commercial banks to prevent credit risk of credit source companies.The empirical results show that: compared with the two high industries,the default distance fluctuation of the new energy industry is smaller,and its credit status has the characteristics of stability;Moreover,there is a high probability of extreme values in the new energy industry.Commercial banks should focus on companies with extreme default distances in the process of green credit business;The credit status of the new energy industry with favorable policies is not necessarily better than that of the two high industries;There is no significant difference in the default distance between state-owned and private new energy companies.The KMV model has good applicability in the case analysis of new energy companies.However,due to the lack of transaction data for many years,its accuracy needs to be verified.Based on theabove analysis,this article puts forward suggestions on improving the credit status of the new energy industry and preventing bank green credit risks from three levels:technology,enterprise and bank.