| Many scholars at home and abroad have found that the issue price in the stock marketis often lower than the closing price on the first day of listing of new shares.This phenomenon is known as the "mystery of IPO underpricing." Therefore,in general,IPO underpricing refers to the The phenomenon that the daily closing price is lower than the issue price.On January 1,2014,China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen markets adopted a new trading system at the same time,that is,the new day’s closing price of new shares listed in the two cities must not exceed 44%.Therefore,in order to more truly reflect the IPO of new shares listed The degree of underpricing.The IPO underpricing in this article refers to the phenomenon that the issue price of new shares is lower than the closing price of the first opening day when it is listed.The IPO underpricing phenomenon is more serious in emerging capital markets,and China’s IPO underpricing rate is even higher.According to research,IPO underpricing rates in developed countries are generally between 10%and 20%,and IPO underpricing rates in emerging capital markets are generally high.Generally,it is between 60%and 80%,and the IPO underpricing rate in China’s A-share market is as high as 150%.Therefore,studying the influencing factors of IPO underpricing and further considering the reasonable range of IPO pricing are of great practical significance for promoting the efficiency of China’s capital market operation and improving the financing efficiency of enterprises.This article uses a combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to focus on case analysis,and discusses the issue of IPO underpricing of listed companies on small and medium-sized boards.This article makes a theoretical basis for the analysis of IPO underpricing.Based on the current research status at home and abroad,referring to many previous research theories,and combining specific cases studied in this article,we summarize the theoretical research involved in empirical analysis and do a theoretical analysis for empirical analysis..The subject of the empirical case study in this article is Xiaoxiong Electric Co.,Ltd.listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 23,2019.Through research,this paper finds that IPO underpricing is common in the small and medium-sized board market,and the severity of IPO underpricing is second only to the GEM market,and the IPO underpricing rate has reached 200%.Based on this,this article analyzes the four factors of sector,year,company value,and industry to derive the IPO undervalue that Xiaoxiong Electric should have at the time of listing,that is,the "general statistical mean" of IPO underpricing.The reason why " "General statistical mean"represents the IPO depreciation value that a new stock should have when it is listed,based on the following two considerations:First,for most non-professional investors in the market,when predicting the benefits of new stock investment in advance,Often,the industry level,company situation,listing time,and sector of the IPO underpricing will be considered.Second,from the perspective of the main body of the new share issue and the securities firm,when setting the issue price for the new share,the above four factors will be considered comprehensively.In order to get the maximum issuance income.Therefore,we use the "general statistical mean" to represent the IPO depreciation value that should be generated by a new share issue.It can theoretically more perfectly reflect the comprehensive factors such as the year,region,industry,and company that are closely related to the issuer of the new share.The impact of IPO underpricing makes our analysis more scientific and comprehensive in addition to what actually happens when new shares are listed.When the new shares are listed,there will be a variety of reasons for the gap between the IPO depreciation value generated by the new share offering and the"general statistical mean" we use,and the reasons for this gap will eventually be combined with many previous studies and related theories.Finally,four main factors are summarized,namely the market investor sentiment,company value,industry development and lead underwriter when the new shares are listed.The main task of this article is to find out the reasons for the difference between the "general statistical mean" of Xiaoxiong Electric’s IPO underpricing and the actual IPO underpricing at the time of listing,and based on this,use our analysis results to analyze the upcoming industry in the same industry.Puppy Electric,a similar company,predicts the IPO underpricing.According to our analysis of the factors affecting the IPO underpricing,the short-term investor sentiment before the IPO is positively related to the IPO underpricing.When the market investor sentiment is more optimistic,there is a greater demand for market securities,which will continuously increase the stock price after listing.Formation of high IPO underpricing.The industry development and IPO underpricing are also positively related.When investors are generally optimistic about the development of an industry,it will form an excess return expectation and excess risk tolerance in the market,generate excess demand for new shares,and increase IPO underpricing.degree.Because the high reputation of the securities firm will play a certification role in issuing new shares,the issue price set by the high securities firm is often above the intrinsic value of the stock,which effectively inhibits the IPO underpricing rate of the new shares.High-value companies,because of their super attractiveness,attracted a large number of investors when the company went public,which led to an increase in the IPO underpricing rate.This paper quantifies our qualitative analysis through least squares estimation and Bayesian estimation.First,we use the least squares method as a priori,and finally use Bayesian estimation to effectively estimate our four factors.We use the forward moving average of the small and medium-sized board KLCI index change from the date of the company’s IPO announcement to the day before the listing to represent the short-term investor sentiment at the time of the company’s listing.10.22,investor sentiment is relatively pessimistic,so the IPO underpricing it actually generates at the time of listing is 0.02 lower than the“general statistical average".Generally speaking,the industry’s P/E ratio is higher the more the industry is recognized by investors,so we use the industry’s P/E ratio to represent the development of the industry.When Xiaoxiong Electric was listed,the small appliance industry’s P/E ratio was 27.24.The Bayesian coefficient is 0.05.The industry will make Xiaoxiong Electric’s IPO underpricing higher than the "general statistical average" by 1.362.For the measurement of company value,the indicator we use is the company’s first raised funds.This is because we consider that for companies with better operating development,the general financial and cash flows are relatively good,the external demand for funds is small,and the funds are naturally raised.The funds are relatively small,and the opposite is true for companies with poor operating development.The Bayesian regression coefficient of the company’s value represented by the raised funds corresponding to IPO underpricing is-0.88,and Xiaoxiong Electric raised funds of 932 million yuan,which will make Xiaoxiong’s IPO undervalued value 1.93 less than the "general statistical average".Since Dongguan Securities,the main underwriter hired by Xiaoxiong Electric,does not have high reputation brokerage qualifications,the impact of brokerage reputation on Xiaoxiong Electric’s IPO underpricing is zero.In order to further verify the reliability of our research methods and research conclusions,we choose to use the same method and Xiaoxiong Appliance,which belongs to the home appliance industry,and has a high degree of similarity in business type and business model.Price forecast,predicting that the future IPO underpricing of Puppy Appliance will be 1.05,and we expect our forecast to be verified within the next two years. |
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