Research On The Measurement And Influencing Factors Of Energy Rebound Effect In China Based On Input-Output Method

In recent years,with the rising level of China’s economic development,people’s material life is gradually rich,while energy consumption is rising,leading to sharp contradictions between energy supply and demand.Due to the extensive use of energy,global warming and deterioration of environmental quality have attracted worldwide attention.On the premise of maintaining economic development,reducing the dependence of economic development on energy consumption as much as possible,making effective use of energy and reducing energy consumption has become an urgent problem for China’s economic development.China has taken a lot of measures to reduce energy consumption by improving the efficiency of energy utilization.But through technological progress,can we really achieve the goal of reducing energy consumption by improving energy efficiency?The fact is that improving energy efficiency reduces unit output,but at the same time,technological progress reduces energy prices and promotes energy consumption,that is,energy rebound.Whether the energy rebound is serious has become the focus of scholars in recent years.Using the input-output tables of 2002,2005,2007,2010 and 2012,the energy input-output tables of corresponding years in China are compiled.Based on these tables,the full energy rebound effect of various industries in China is measured and compared with the direct energy rebound effect calculated by traditional methods.Through building panel data model,the influencing factors of energy rebound effect are analyzed,which provides scientific basis for targeted suppression of energy rebound effect.By calculating the rebound effect of direct and complete energy in China from 2002 to 2012,it is found that,on the whole,there are different degrees of energy rebound effect in various industries in China.From the perspective of industry,the rebound effect of energy fluctuates greatly in different years.From the perspective of industry,the rebound effect of energy in different industries is also quite different.The direct energy rebound effect of each industry fluctuates greatly,and the commonness among industries is weak.The results of 2007-2010 are mostly negative,which indicates that there is no more demand and energy consumption in this period.Except for the production and supply industries of electricity and heat,the peak value of full energy rebound effect of each industry mostly occurs in 2002-2005 and 2005-2007,and the last two regions have relatively low and stable rebound effect.By 2012,the biggest rebound effect of energy is the production and supply of electricity and heat,which is 199.2%,and other industries are below 30%.It shows that with the development of science and technology,energy saving and emission reduction have achieved a certain effect.At the same time,due to the increase of demand in individual industries is greater than the improvement of energy efficiency,which aggravates the rebound effect.This paper chooses macro and industrial variables to study the influencing factors of direct and indirect energy rebound effect.At macro level,it chooses the scale of export trade,industrial structure,disposable income of residents and energy supply.At industrial level,it chooses energy structure,property rights system,labor productivity and R&D intensity.One indicator.From the results,macro-factors have no obvious impact on the direct rebound effect,while property rights system and labor productivity have significant impact on the industrial level.By improving market concentration and labor productivity,the direct energy rebound effect can be reduced.In terms of indirect rebound effect,the increase of energy supply and export scale will aggravate the indirect rebound effect.On the industrial level,the rise of coal’s proportion in total energy consumption aggravates the rebound effect;the rise of labor productivity aggravates the rebound effect;the rise of the proportion of state-owned holding enterprises in the total enterprise,i.e.,the stronger the market concentration,the slower the rebound effect;the rise of R&D degree slows down the rebound effect,which also confirms the fact that the branch The improvement of technology level plays an important role in energy saving and emission reduction.Although with the development of economy,the demand for energy is constantly increasing,and the consumption of energy is constantly improving,the improvement of technology level can still play a role in energy saving.On this basis,four policy suggestions are put forward:Firstly,the importance of scientific and technological development to reduce energy consumption should be strengthened,and new technologies and technologies should be adopted to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption.Second,improve market concentration and avoid energy waste caused by decentralization.Thirdly,relying solely on technological means can not effectively reduce energy consumption.To solve the problem of energy constraints,we need to improve energy efficiency while cooperating with other policy control means.Fourthly,we should improve the energy price mechanism and fully reflect the supply and demand of the market.