Research On The Impact Of New Subway Opening In Chongqing On Passenger Flow At Existing Stations

With the rapid development of society and economy,the urbanization rate has steadily increased.In order to solve the increasingly severe traffic congestion,cities have strengthened their investment in subway construction,and the rail transit network structure has been continuously improved.It is necessary to study the impact of the new lines on the existing network,to help rail transit enterprises better formulate a reasonable passenger flow organization plan.This paper studies the impact of the new rail transit line on existing network passenger flow.First,the spatial and temporal changes of passenger flow are analyzed from the three levels of station,line,and network.The fluctuation of passenger flow at different times is described.The distribution of spatial passenger flow is visualized by Arc GIS.Secondly,use Python to process the ticket data of Chongqing Rail Transit from January 1,2016 to June 30,2018,and organize the daily boarding and alighting passenger flow at the station.Then analyze the changes in passenger flow at all stations of the entire network before and after the opening of Lines 5 and 10,quantitatively evaluate the contribution and attraction of the new lines and the existing network.Using Rstudio to perform stepwise regression on the variables,and perform multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation detection on the significant variables obtained.Finally,a GWR model was established between the changes in passenger flow and key factors such as the socio-economic characteristics of the station,its own attributes,and the impact of the new line.After a comparative test,the validity of the model was demonstrated.The main research contents of this article are as follows:(1)Use Python and R big data processing software to "clean" and classify the collected mass passenger data.(2)Spatial-temporal analysis of passenger flow at existing stations before and after Chongqing Metro Line 5 and Line 10 opened,and visualized using Arc GIS.(3)Analyze the significant impact of the new line on the passenger flow of existing stations,and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the passenger flow contribution and attraction between the newly opened line and the existing network.(4)Using R to perform a stepwise regression analysis on various factors affecting passenger flow at stations,the main influencing factors are:existing station passenger flow,the shortest travel time to the new line,the minimum number of transfers to the new line,whether it is located in the new line buffer,Number of bus stops around the station and population density around the station.(5)A geographically weighted regression model was constructed between the change in passenger flow and significant factors.Compared with linear regression,the model fits better and explains the spatial heterogeneity of the variables.The research results show that the opening of the new line will have a certain impact on the passenger flow of existing stations in the short term.The passenger flow at the interchange stations caused by the new line generally increased,and the short-term passenger flow at the existing stations located in the 800-meter buffer zone of the new station parallel to the new line decreased significantly.The research results in this paper can provide a certain reference for government policy formulation,and have important significance for improving the transportation efficiency of rail transit enterprises.