Rapid Generation And Dynamic Optimization Method Of Traffic Emergency Plan For Large-scale Events Emergencies

With the increasing number of large-scale events in China,especially the international large-scale sports events,international conferences,etc.,the generation and dynamic optimization technology of traffic emergency plan for large-scale events are also more and more valued.At present,the generation and dynamic optimization of traffic emergency plans for large-scale events are mainly based on manual generation,and the plan content is lack of targeted and quantitative emergency measures,resulting in slow emergency response and low disposal efficiency.This paper uses the historical cases in the large-scale event traffic emergency plan database to study the dynamic decision-making optimization technology of the large-scale event traffic emergency plan,quickly generate the best matching plan and realize the dynamic adjustment and improvement,so as to provide support for the traffic emergency decision-making,which has important practical significance.The paper analyzes the traffic characteristics of large-scale events and the characteristics of large-scale events,puts forward the following principles of large-scale event emergency traffic measures and the classification and classification standards of emergencies,defines the main structure of large-scale event traffic emergency plan and the starting conditions of the plan,and preliminarily completes the construction of large-scale event traffic emergency plan;secondly,considering the lack of large-scale event attributes and Based on case-based reasoning and naive Bayes classification,a rapid plan generation method is proposed,which extracts event related characteristic attributes according to the emergency needs,determines the characteristic attribute index of different types of emergencies,and calculates the posterior probability through Bayes classification algorithm to obtain the best matching plan in the case of incomplete attributes;then,for emergencies,the best matching plan is obtained The evolution of the incident may cause the mismatch between the plan implemented in the previous stage and the emergency demand of the current stage,resulting in the high or low emergency capacity of the plan.The dynamic optimization method of the plan based on rule-based reasoning is proposed,the knowledge base and rule base of the traffic emergency plan base are established,and the content of the plan is modified by using forward reasoning.Finally,the starting conditions of the dynamic optimization of the plan are studied According to the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,the evaluation index system of emergency response capability and emergency severity is constructed.According to the evaluation criteria,the two levels are compared to determine whether the plan needs to be optimized.Based on the Beijing Olympic Winter Games,this thesis analyzes the rapid generation method of traffic emergency plan,the dynamic optimization method of traffic emergency plan and the emergency response capacity evaluation method.