Dynamic Simulation Of Road Land Use Change Based On Cellular Automata And Neural Network

Land use change has always been a hot research field in many countries.The study of land use change in road region has important guiding significance and practical value for ecological environmental protection,sustainable use of land resources in Road area and road route selection in the future.Based on the analysis and model simulation of land use change in road area,this paper selects the 2-kilometer area of Qiwan expressway as the research area to study the current situation of land use in the road area,the driving factors of land use change and the simulation model of land change are studied.Firstly,collect the Qiwan high-speed line through the web crawler.Then,the Landsat images in 2008,2013 and 2018 are cut and classified to obtain the current land use map of the third phase of the road area.Then,according to the interpreted land use classification data,carry out the current situation and change analysis of the land use.For the reasons of land use change,8 social and economic factors and 5 geographical and environmental factors are selected,and the driving factors of land use change in road area are analyzed by random forest method and Logistic regression method respectively.Finally,according to the analysis results of the current situation and changes,the ANN-CA(Artificial Neural Networks-Cellular Automata)model of land use change in Qiwan highway area is established to predict the land use change in the road area,and the predicted results of the model are dynamically simulated.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)This paper analyzes the land use change of Qiwan Expressway from 2008 to 2018.Through the calculation of land use transfer matrix,it is found that the most obvious changes in Qiwan highway area in recent 10 years are construction land,forest land and other land.The main reason is that the construction and operation of Qiwan Expressway increased the surrounding construction land and occupied forest land and other land correspondingly.The cultivated land and water area should be protected,so that the change of these two kinds of land is small.(2)Discuss the landscape pattern of Qiwan expressway from 2008 to 2018.By analyzing the area and density index,edge and shape index,and landscape diversity index of the landscape type,it is found that the landscape of Qiwan highway area is evenly distributed,the landscape heterogeneity is improved,and the overall distribution is simple and reasonable,but the overall diversity of the landscape is increased,the degree of fragmentation is deeper,and the anti-interference ability of the regional landscape is decreased to some extent.The main reason is that after the construction of Qiwan high speed,the landscape along the road area is divided,and human factors have a great impact on the landscape.But with the passage of time,the landscape planning of the road area develops in a reasonable direction,Therefore,the landscape distribution is more reasonable than before.(3)The driving factors of land use change in Qiwan expressway are analyzed.The results show that the per capita disposable income of residents is the main factor driving the change of construction land;In terms of geographical environment,the change of construction land,farmland,woodland and other land is driven by such sequence as of distance from Qiwan expressway,distance from river,distance from the center of residential area,slope and elevation;The waters are almost unchanged and are therefore not included in the analysis.(4)In this paper,the ANN-CA model is constructed to simulate and predict the land use change of Qiwan Expressway in 2023.The standard kappa coefficient of the model is 0.7534,which can basically realize the simulation of land use in the road area.The simulation results in 2023 are as follows: the area of construction land,cultivated land,water area and other land all increased slightly,and the forest land decreased to some extent.The distribution of landscape pattern is more uniform and the fragmentation is reduced,However,the lack is that the impact of human activities on the landscape pattern is deepening.