Passenger Flow Assignment Method Of Urban Rail Transit Under Short-term Interruption

Under the background of network operation of urban rail transit,the scale of the network increases accordingly,and the network structure becomes more complex,attracting more and more passengers.The complex network structure accompanied by huge passenger flow leads to the frequent occurrence of emergency operation events,which bring great challenge to the urban rail transit operation system.In this paper,we take the short-term operational interruption of the urban rail system as the background to study the distribution of passenger flow on the road network during the interruption time.Firstly,this paper analyzes the emergency operation events of Beijing rail transit system in recent years,and defines the short-time interruption events.The urban rail transit network is established,the effective path is defined,and the common path searching algorithm is introduced.Based on the analysis of the factors of rail transit passengers’ path selection and the behavior of passengers’ path selection in the case of short-term interruptions,the passenger path impedance function is established considering the travel time,the congestion degree and the convenience of transfer of passengers in the peak period.Secondly,the principle of passenger flow distribution and the method of equalization passenger flow distribution are introduced.The fluctuation characteristics of rail transit passenger travel time are analyzed and its distribution function is given.In the case of short interruptions,the cumulative prospect theory(CPT)is applied to analyze the passengers’ path decision-making behavior,and the endogenous reference point based on time reliability is set up to calculate the cumulative prospect value of passenger travel path;The stochastic equilibrium assignment model is established,and its equivalent variational inequality model is given,and the Method of Sucessive Average(MSA)algorithm is used to solve the model.By using the AFC data of Beijing rail transit network and taking a short interruption on a Tuesday in February 2019 as an example,the model is used to distribute the passenger flow of the road network during the interruption period.The results are compared with those of Beijing clearing system,and the errors are all within 10%,which proves the effectiveness of the model.Considering the reliability of passengers’ travel time,this paper applies the CPT to analyze passengers’ route decision-making behavior,and establishes a stochastic equilibrium assignment model,which is more in line with the actual situation of passengers,and provides a theoretical basis for the assignment of passenger flow in the case of short interruptions.