Research On Weak Links Identification And Risk Management Of Distribution Network Based On Typhoon Simulation

This paper focuses on the mechanism of typhoon on the distribution network components,and involves the research on risk assessment of the distribution network,identification of weak links and distribution methods of relief and repair materials under typhoon scenarios.The failure rate model including the actual operating state of components is established through the simulation of wind speed during typhoon process.And the risk assessment of distribution network is conducted before typhoon landing.Based on the risk assessment results,considering the fault frequency of overhead lines and the importance of power supply load in the distribution network,the weak links of overhead lines are fully explored.On this basis,the material distribution plan realizing efficient use of materials is established,which reduces the load loss and economic loss caused by typhoon and improves the reliability of power supply in the disaster environment.The main work of this paper is as follows:1)Aiming at the inaccuracy of risk assessment of distribution network in typhoon disaster,this paper presents a risk assessment method of distribution network considering the operation state of electric poles.Based on the simulation of the wind speed after typhoon landing,the failure rate model of the poles and overhead lines in the distribution network under typhoon disaster is established,and the risk indexes of load loss and economic loss after typhoon disaster are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation method.The result of risk assessment can reasonably estimate the risk of distribution network before typhoon disaster and provide basis for the identification of the weak link of overhead line.2)In order to provide the distribution basis for the limited materials,this paper presents a method to identify the weak links of overhead lines in the distribution network.Based on typhoon model and line failure rate model,the failure frequency of the line and the importance of power supply load are comprehensively considered to define the line vulnerability index,and the weight of each factor in the index is determined by analytic hierarchy process.The weak links of overhead lines are identified according to the vulnerability index value of each line.Distribution of relief materials according to the results of weak links can effectively improve the efficiency of material utilization.3)Based on the results of risk assessment and identification of the weak links,this paper establishes a multi-step distribution model for relief materials and a distribution model for repair materials.Before typhoon landing,according to the identified result of weak link of overhead line,the distribution of two kinds of relief materials including the wind-proof cable and the generation cars is carried out.After the typhoon process,the distribution plan of repair materials is made to achieve the purpose of efficient use of the certain amount of materials within limited time.