Research On The Application Of Short-term Load Forecasting Technology For Xuzhou Yunlong Wanda Commercial Complex

With the advances of modern society and raising living standards of the people,electric power plays an important role in the development of industry and people’s daily life,so the supporting role of electric power in social advances is raising and greater.The raising demand for electricity has brought great challenges,and it is necessary to further increase the scale of power system construction.Primary energy and huge investment have put forward new requirements for the development of power industry,and the relevant departments of the national economy have also had a profound impact.Economic and reasonable planning of the advances of power grid construction brings great economic profits,social benefits can also be greatly improved.Vice versa,unreasonable power grid construction planning will cause great harm to national construction.Firstly,the power grid construction planning is analyzed,the research background of commercial complex and short-term load forecasting is discussed,the current situation and development of short-term load forecasting technology of commercial complex is analyzed,and the economic and security factors in the process of power generation,transmission,distribution and electricity consumption is comprehensively discussed in the thesis.Secondly,the rationality of the selection of load forecasting method is discussed,a process-following characteristic of all observation sequences to create and estimate the model of generating realistic sequence random process is used,and then the built model to implement prediction is used in this thesis.Finally,the establishment of the complex load forecasting model is briefly described,and according to the characteristics of linear filters,several types of complex time series models are analyzed in detail.Meanwhile,the establishment,existing circumstances and future advances of Wanda commercial complex are explained.Combined with its load characteristics,the daily real-time load sample data in November is used as the prediction data,and the daily real-time load is counted by the proposed algorithm.The daily load forecasting is carried out by using the data,and the error analysis between the predicted value of the design model and the actual data is compared and judged,and further improvement measures are put forward.Through the analysis of time series algorithm and the application in the load of Xuzhou Yunlong Wanda commercial complex,the short-term prediction is carried out effectively,which is of great significance to improve the efficiency of power grid operation.There are 7 figures,5 tables and 85 references in this thesis.