Research On The Result Of Electricity Market Mechanisms And Probabilistic Simulation To Measure The Renewable Energy Accommodation Ability

At present,China’s utilized capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are larger than any countries in worldwide.Accompanied by the implementation of the strategic goal aimed at carbon emission limitation,the new energy industry is bound to achieve faster development.However,due to the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of new energy resources,it can be predicted that the construction of new energy stations will be in the northern region,while the new energy consumption market is mainly in the southeast region of China.The need of "west power transmission to east" of new energy is more significant,and the nationwide power market is gradually forming.In order to ensure the healthy and orderly development of new energy,the energy enrichment areas have carried out a series of promotion of innovation practice of electric power market construction.Eight provinces,including Gansu,in 2018 have launched a pilot electricity spot market,after more than two years,many remarkable results have been seen,and experience has been accumulated.An electricity market which in accordance with the situation of our country has become increasingly mature.In this thesis,the demand of renewable energy consumption assessment in Gansu market construction is analyzed carefully,the current situation and future development direction of the market construction are fully considered.Based on the sequential stochastic production simulation algorithm containing renewable factor,this article used EEF method to improve calculate speed,and the units are arranged by the principles of heat load and wind power priority.Then,this article the long-term market mechanism into inner province and outer province.The detailed analysis is made on the generation right trading between self-provided power plant and new energy,large users direct trading,cross-regional inter-district trade policy models.Next,the author established a mathematical model of long-term and spot electricity market mechanism principle to simulate their effects on renewable energy curtailment.The cross-regional trade is found to be the most effective mechanism.As for the spot market,the effectiveness is analyzed through the demand response of the TOU power price.And the side-effect of forward contracts is also emphasized,the physical contracts have larger negative influence on RES accommodation.Further more,the overall coordination between the forward and spot market is analyzed from the peak-regulating pressure and the risk of abandoning electricity generated by the decomposition of electric quantity curve,and the reasonable proportion of forward trade electric quantity in Gansu electric power market is about 50%.Finally,a multi-market coordinated panoramic accommodation evaluation strategy is constructed on the basis of market mechanism evaluation,which is able to obtain the quantitative analysis of the impact of long-term and spot market transactions on the absorption capacity of renewable energy,which proves the application of electrical market mostly can decrease the abandon rate under 5%.And the suggestions for improvement of provincial power market’s mechanism construction are put forward under the high proportion of renewable energy.