Research On Renewable Energy Power Generation Forecast And Microgrid Energy Management

Energy scarcity and environmental pollution are problems facing t he world,and the development and utilization of renewable energy power generation is an effective way to improve the environment.However,the microgrid system composed of renewable energy power generation is susceptible to the impact of climate and envir onmental changes,leading to randomness in power generation,so it is necessary to optimize the energy management of the microgrid.This paper predicts the power generation of renewable energy and load,and realizes the energy management of the microgrid t hrough energy management strategy.First,the mathematical model of distributed power generation and the energy management model of microgrid are described.In view of the randomness of renewable energy power generation and load,three different forecastin g methods,including exponential smoothing method,gray forecasting method and time series analysis method based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),are used to predict renewable energy power generation and load.Through simulation exp eriments of numerical examples,the prediction error rates of the three methods are compared,and the conclusion that the time series analysis method based on ARIMA has higher prediction accuracy is obtained.Then,aiming at the energy management requirements of the microgrid,an energy management strategy for the microgrid is given.This strategy is based on the predicted power generation and load of the microgrid,considering the future weather conditions and combining with the energy storage system,calculating the transaction willingness of the microgrid through the energy management algorithm,and then calculating the bidding electricity price and the bidding electricity capacity of the microgrid from the transaction willingness of the microgrid.On this basis,according to the bidding price and bidding power of each microgrid,the particle swarm algorithm is used to find the best transaction target of the microgrid in the trading market,so that the energy of the microgrid can be optimally dispatched.Finally,in order to verify the feasibility and optimization effect of the proposed method,a simulation program was written based on Matlab software to simulate 30 energy management examples of microgrids participating in power trading,and the optimization efficiency of the optimization algorithm was obtained.At the same time,the total cost of the proposed method in predicting different periods in the future is compared with the total cost of the traditional method and the open loop look-ahead 24 h dispatch method.Through simulation and result analysis,the feasibility of the proposed method is verified and the operating cost of the microgrid can be effectively reduced.