Investment Risk Analysis Of Prefabricated Residential Project Based On SEM

As a development path of the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry,prefabricated buildings can effectively help the traditional construction industry to get rid of its dependence on large number of labor forces,remove the label of high pollution and high energy consumption,and then become an environmentally friendly industrial industry with a high degree of mechanization.China’s prefabricated building industry is in its initial stage of development,and residential projects account for the largest share of new prefabricated building projects.In China’s market economy,prefabricated residential projects are affected by multi-dimensional investment risks of policy,economy,market,technology and management,which makes all investors less enthusiastic about the development of prefabricated residential projects,hindering the further development of prefabricated buildings in China.Therefore,this paper studies and analyzes the factors that affect the investment and development of prefabricated residential projects from the investment perspective of prefabricated residential projects.First of all,from the development background of prefabricated building,through the comparison of prefabricated building and traditional cast-in-place building,took a deep analysis of the characteristics of prefabricated building.Based on the theory of risk management and comprehensive analysis of a variety of common methods of risk element identification,the literature research method and expert interview method are confirmed as the identification methods of investment risk elements in this paper.Based on the literature research method,this paper preliminarily identified a total of 35 risk infl uencing factors of prefabricated residential project investment risk,and then corrected and summarized the identified risk factors through expert interview method,and obtained 5 categories of 28 risk factors,which were summarized to form a list of prefabricated residential project investment risk factors.After comprehensive comparison of common risk management evaluation and analysis methods,the analysis method of structural equation model(SEM)was determined.Based on the theoretical model of structural equation,this paper constructed a structural equation model for the investment risk of prefabricated residential projects.Secondly,taking the government agencies,real estate enterprises,design enterprises,construction enterprises,prefabricated components suppliers,consulting enterprises and other prefabricated construction industry participants as the research objects,the paper conducted a questionnaire survey on investment risk evaluation of prefabricated residential projects.Then,based on the survey data collected from the questionnaire survey,SPSS software was used to test the reliability and validity,and then combined with AMOS26.0 software to build the prefabricated housing project investment risk analysis model.Through data fitting,evaluation analysis and model modification,the optimal evaluation and analysis model was obtained,and all the five research hypotheses were verified.Combined with the results of model evaluation and analysis,11 key risk factors of investment were confirmed.Finally,based on the evaluation and analysis of 11 key risks of structural equation theory,combined with the current new technology,tools,theories and methods,from the perspective of government agencies,real estate enterprises,construction enterprises,prefabricated component suppliers and other enterprises,this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures for the key risks.This paper carries on the research of investment risk of prefabricated residential projects.List of investment risk elements of prefabricated residential project is established,and the investment risk analysis model of prefabricated residential project is constructed,which provides reference for the investment and construction of each participating unit in the prefabricated residential project,promotes the healthy development of the prefabricated construction industry and promotes the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry.