Research On Causes Of Secondary Accidents Of Expressway Under Rainy Weather Based On Random Forest

With the rapid development of highways,the number and severity of highway accidents caused by traffic accidents continues to increase.On the one hand,research on rainy weather secondary accidents’ cause plays an important role in preventing the occurrence of secondary accidents on highways.On the other hand,past researches mostly use the Logistic model which has big disadvantage.Random forest algorithm has the function of processing high-dimensional data and avoiding overfitting which has great potential in improving the accuracy and reliability of model.Therefore,based on the British highway traffic accident database,the causes of highway accidents in rainy weather by random forest is researched.First,based on the static spatiotemporal threshold method,the secondary accidents of highway under rainy weather is identified,and the characteristics is analyzed.Compared with the characteristics of normal weather accidents,the characteristics of the secondary accidents of highway under rainy weather is revealed.Secondly,based on the analysis of the adverse impact of rainy weather on traffic safety,the process of the causes of secondary accidents in different stages is analyzed,The important causal variables corresponding to each stage of the process are summarized,and the set of causal variables for the secondary accident of highway under rainy weather is constructed.Thirdly,a prediction model for the severity of secondary accidents based on random forest is established,and the significant causes of highway accidents that affect the rainy environment is identified and analyzed.Furthermore,the model from the aspects of prediction accuracy and model comparison is analyzed.Finally,to reduce the driving risk in the area affected by accident and improving the traffic safety under the accident conditions,the countermeasures for preventing secondary accidents in different areas affected by accident is proposed,and method of highway secondary accident warning system under rainy weather is constructed,the accident emergency rescue plan is processed.