Study On Trip Chain Model And OD Estimation Based On Bus IC Card Data

With the continuous improvement of China’s transportation infrastructure,residents’ travel has become more convenient and faster.As a hub system of urban transportation,public transportation carries a large number of residents’ trips.As the main payment medium for buses,the bus IC card contains a large amount of passenger travel information.In the context of massive travel information,how to make good use of this data has become a research hotspot.In this paper,the bus IC card data is used to sort it out.Based on the processed research data,the passenger’s travel chain model,and single-line bus OD are analyzed and calculated.The specific research content is as follows:(1)Based on the big data platform,the AFC data set and the AVL data set in the automatic data collection system were used to determine the passenger’s boarding time stamp,and the flexible time was introduced to refine the boarding time threshold to determine the boarding station of the passenger.Individual trip chains and station attraction rights were used to calculate passenger drop-off stations separately.(2)Based on travel repeatability,a trip chain model was established.Mathematical methods in combination with random processes were used to sort and calibrate passenger travel time,travel location status and other characteristic events,multi-day travel sequence of travelers were proposed as a random process,and information entropy and entropy rate were as a tool to quantify passenger repeatability.An empirical analysis was made using Shijiazhuang bus smart card passenger travel data as an example.The results show that passenger repeatability can be quantified by information entropy and entropy rate.The larger the information entropy,the smaller the entropy rate and the higher the repeatability of the trip.Based on this,it is possible to judge the changes of the passenger’s travel regularity,and the relevant analysis results are given.(3)Processed research data were used to estimate the OD of single-line bus.Based on the Iterative Proportion Fitting method and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method,the passenger flow OD matrix of Shijiazhuang Public Transport Company’s bus# during the morning peak hours of 7: 00-9: 00 was calculated.In summary,this study obtained the passenger travel sequence based on the bus IC card data.And then,based on the quantified travel repeatability,the passenger’s travel chain model was obtained.On the other side,the single-line bus passenger flow OD was estimated based on the passenger’s boarding and alighting station data.The research conclusions of the two aspects can provide reference for urban transportation planning.