Dynamic Optimization Of Ship Manipulation And Route Based On Typhoon Forecast Trajectory

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,China has proposed a series of strategic measures,including a maritime power,a transportation power and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,focusing on the development of the Marine economy.Stable development of Marine economy is crucial to the future development of China.However,China’s coastline is long,and tropical cyclones bring great challenges to the safety of ships along China’s coast.Ships accidents caused by tropical cyclones occur from time to time every year.In addition,the problem of global warming has not been alleviated in recent years,which also leads to the slow movement of tropical cyclones and longer duration,which puts forward higher requirements for the safe navigation of ships.At the same time,with the development of numerical prediction technology,the numerical prediction technology in China has entered the leading position in the world,which is not only conducive to land anti-typhoon,but also conducive to the anti-typhoon of ships at sea.Therefore,in the face of the inherent requirement of current time background and the level of the numerical prediction in our country,this article first to our country coastal characteristics and spatial distribution regularity of tropical cyclone is analyzed,and on this basis the preventing Taiwan accident cause analysis,and then give the ship in case of control measures and dynamic optimization scheme of ship collision avoidance.The specific research content includes the following four aspects:1)Clustering analysis of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean was carried out by using the K-value clustering algorithm.The results show that the number of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1994 to 2019 has decreased slightly compared with that in the previous years of 1949 to 1970 and 1970 to 1994.The main forming months of tropical cyclones concentrated in July,August,September and October,among which there were 5.7 in August.The deviation of tropical cyclone path posed a greater threat to sailing ships.After analysis,it was found that the deviation area was concentrated in the 15°N～25°N region.Due to the recent global warming,the duration of tropical cyclones is slightly longer,and the average latitude of tropical cyclones is-0.2°N.2)Based on the random forest algorithm model,the accident causes were analyzed.Firstly,the obtained accident report is converted according to the accident cause and accident grade to form a database.Then,the first-order origin moment is estimated for the accident level,E(X)=2.85,and the accident level in the overall sample tends to be between 2-3 levels.The basis of the principle of "one law" sampling,sampling,and random forest classifier and simulation test set,in ensuring that 2-3 level accident under the condition of diagnostic rate of 90% or more to get the final decision tree,decision tree,according to the cause of preventing accidents are: the crew low sense of responsibility is not strong,the crew vocational skills,decision-making errors,sea business regulation,daily management,the difference of hull structure,ship age long.The shortest cause chain of the accident is: crew responsibility is not strong → crew professional skills → sea affairs supervision →3 level accident,crew responsibility is not strong → decision-making error → daily management of the ship →2 level accident,crew responsibility is not strong → decision-making error → 3 level accident.3)To analyze the characteristics of tropical cyclone waves and their harm to ships.The analysis results show that the waves in the tropical cyclone are irregular waves,which mainly affect the hull with three degrees of freedom: pitch,roll and heave.According to the analysis results,the ship’s maneuvering method in the tropical cyclone is given.4)The points needing attention and preventive measures for ship anchoring and anti-typhoon are given,as well as the dynamic navigation optimization scheme after the ship meets the typhoon.Through the analysis of the causes of the ship avoiding the platform,it is found that many ship accidents are caused by the moving of anchor,and in view of the problem of the ship moving of anchor against typhoon,the attention and preventive measures for the ship mooring against typhoon are given.For the ship in typhoon,the maneuvering method of leaving typhoon wind circle is given,and the dynamic optimization scheme of avoiding typhoon route is put forward.