Analysis Of The Changing Trend Of The Composition Of Highway Trucks Under The Toll Model Based On Vehicle Types

To improve the efficiency of highway traffic,since January 1,2020,abolish all highway boundary toll station,the classification models are carried out to collect tolls policy and redrawing model classification standards,affected by the economy,transport enterprises adapt to the new standards,adjust the distribution vehicle type,can change the composition on the highway.In order to help transportation enterprises and expressway-related departments understand the composition trend of future models and provide suggestions to automobile manufacturers,this paper selects Shandong Province expressway freight car toll big data to analyze the composition trend of expressway freight car under the new policy.In this paper,the combination of data modeling and case analysis is used to analyze the composition of freight cars on the expressway of Shandong Province under the classification of tolls.Firstly,based on the expressway network charging data,and Logic model,and the machine learning model,the significance of the vehicle type classification effect is identified from the perspective of freight volume,freight distance,average charging rate,and other factors.On the basis of verifying the optimal effect of freight volume,two time series models of the exponential smoothing method and ARIMA are established to predict the traffic volume of each freight volume interval from 2020 to 2021.The goodness of fit R2 was compared,and the best fitting results of the two models were selected and adopted.Finally,the corresponding relationship between freight volume and vehicle type is quantified through association analysis,and the prediction results and association rules are coupled.The concept of vehicle type importance is introduced to study the trend change of truck composition caused by the new charging policy.The results show that in the mode of toll collection according to vehicle types,the traffic volume of 2-axle trucks and 6-axle trucks will account for 42.07% and 41.84% in 2020,and they will undertake important transportation work,while the other axle trucks will account for7.30%,6.88%,and 1.91%,respectively.In 2021,the proportion of five types of trucks was42.04%,7.23%,6.89%,1.85%,and 41.99%.Compared with the freight vehicle composition under the weight charging mode,the proportion of all other freight vehicles except 6-axle freight vehicles showed an upward trend.Among them,the proportion of 6-axle trucks decreased by about 6.5%,the proportion of 2-axle trucks increased by 5%,and the proportion of 3,4,and 5-axle trucks increased by about 1%,0.3%,and 0.23%,respectively.Under the model of vehicle classification and charging,2-axis and 6-axis trucks play an important role overall,but 6-axis trucks are relatively less economical,and the traffic flow will gradually shift to other vehicles.