Research On Multi-Point Layout Planning Of Multi-Energy Power Supply Considering Wind And Solar Uncertainty

As the contradiction between the growth of energy demand and the depletion of fossil fuel resources has become increasingly prominent,the large-scale development of low-carbon,clean new energy is one of the important measures for my country to realize energy transition and cope with global climate change.However,the inherent uncertainty of wind and light also poses a huge challenge to the stable operation of the power system.Due to the insufficient absorption capacity of the power system,serious wind and solar abandonment have been caused.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the power system power planning method in the case of large-scale new energy integration.In order to solve this problem fundamentally,wind and wind uncertainty and power system operating conditions need to be considered at the same time in the planning stage.On the one hand,it is necessary to accurately describe the real distribution characteristics of wind and solar,on the other hand,it is necessary to provide a multi-energy power system power supply planning program and efficiently and accurately simulate the grid-connected operation of each power supply.The main research contents of this paper include:(1)This paper proposes a typical scenery simulation method based on Wasserstein Generative Confrontation Network.Wasserstein Generative Confrontation Network uses Wasserstein distance instead of JS distance to measure the distance between real samples and generated samples based on the original GAN.This method is used to generate a large number of Wind speed,irradiance scenes and K-medoids scene reduction technology are used to obtain several typical scenes.Finally,the generated scenes are evaluated and analyzed based on the constructed typical scene evaluation system.The simulation results of the calculation example show that,compared with the traditional uncertain description method of scenery,the proposed method does not need to use any specific distribution to describe the distribution characteristics of wind speed and irradiance,and does not involve explicit feature analysis,and can directly use historical data to train the network.Able to describe the real distributed scenery resource scene.At the same time,the designed comprehensive evaluation index including annual distribution deviation,annual peak deviation and resource variation coefficient can fully reflect the integrity,extremeness and timing of the data,which verifies the accuracy and superiority of the scenario simulation method.The proposed method can accurately simulate typical scenes of scenery that can characterize the true distribution of scenery resources,provide a data basis for power supply planning,and have wide applicability.(2)A mathematical model describing the sequential operation characteristics of cluster units is established,and the power generation characteristics of thermal power,hydropower,wind power,photovoltaic,solar thermal,energy storage and other power sources are analyzed.Through unit aggregation and continuous processing of discrete variables describing unit operating characteristics,comprehensive consideration of wind and solar uncertainties and sequential operating characteristics of multi-energy power units,a new energy power capacity configuration model based on sequential production simulation is constructed.The simulation results of a practical example of a power grid in a northwestern province show that the proposed model can be efficiently solved on a long-term scale,and a power planning scheme that significantly promotes the consumption of new energy can be obtained.It can be accurately simulated while being compatible with local resource characteristics and load characteristics Grid-connected operation of multi-energy power sources.(3)On the basis of the aforementioned new energy power supply capacity configuration model based on time series production simulation,taking into account the grid structure and the transmission section constraints,a multi-energy power supply multi-point layout planning model is constructed.The model also considers the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of wind and solar resources,the operating characteristics of multi-energy units and the capacity of the power system,and obtains a multi-energy power multi-point layout planning scheme with the most comprehensive cost.The simulation analysis of the actual power system equivalent calculation example shows that the proposed model can be used to efficiently solve the multi-energy power supply multi-point layout planning plan,and on the basis of fully absorbing new energy sources,it can simulate the grid-connected operation status of each power supply in the planning level.Operation dispatchers formulate scientific and reasonable dispatch operation strategies to provide quantitative decision-making basis.