Demand Analysis Of Road And Water Transportation In Hubei Province

In recent years,the economic aggregate of Hubei Province has been expanding,the industrial structure has been optimizing day by day,the tertiary industry has become the pillar industry of Hubei Province’s economic development,and the transportation industry has become the leading industry of economic growth.Road and water transport in Hubei Province occupies a dominant position in the transportation industry.It is of great significance to study and predict the demand of road and water transport for the economic and social development of Hubei Province.Based on the actual data from 2006 to 2018,this paper first analyzes the current situation of road and water transport development in Hubei Province.By selecting core indexes such as total road network,network coverage,port scale and waterway scale,and making a quantitative comparison of the development situation over the years between Hubei province and the six central provinces,the analysis shows that There are some problems in Hubei Province,such as highway development lagging behind,many constraints in ordinary highway construction,unreasonable road network structure,insufficient deep and smooth channel,poor port and wharf structure,and low level of informatization.Secondly,on the premise of analyzing the demand trend of passenger and freight transportation in recent years,combining the main indicators of macroeconomic and social development,including GDP,fixed assets investment,total retail sales of social consumer goods,total import and export,population size and output of major industrial products,etc.,the correlation analysis theory is fully used to determine the main factors affecting the demand forecast of road water transportation.Finally,according to the relevant development plans,the main economic and social development indicators in the near future 2025 and 2030 are predicted,and the demand data of road and water transport in Hubei Province is predicted by establishing two kinds of models based on time series and causal analysis.Based on the weighted combination of the prediction results of the two models,the forecast results of passenger and freight transport and turnover of road and water are obtained.It can be seen that the demand for road and water transport in Hubei province is still strong in the future.Although road passenger transport has fallen into the trough period,road freight transport will maintain a high growth rate for a long period of time.With the economic and social development,the water transport market will enter a golden period.In order to promote the sustained and rapid economic and social development of Hubei Province,it is necessary to continuously improve the supply capacity of transportation infrastructure,accelerate the adjustment of highway and waterway transport structure,and promote the quality and capacity expansion of main transport channels.