China-Europe Railway Express And China-Europe Trade Development Prediction And Coordination Discrimination Under The Background Of "The Belt And Road"

Under the background of "The Belt And Road",China and Europe have gradually increased their international economy and trade.It has been more than ten years since the "Yuxinou" International Railway（the first train of China-Europe Railway Express）was launched in 2011.Meanwhile,black swan event（such as COVID-19）,trade frictions and climate change,will cause the uncertainty of the development of China-Europe trade.The coordination between China and Europe will gradually show a difference in the spatial and temporal development of trade between China and Europe.Therefore,this paper first forecasts the development demand from the perspectives of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade,and then makes a spatio-temporal discriminant study on the coordinated development of China EU train and China EU trade,and traces the reasons or its change.Firstly,by collecting the current development data of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade,this paper systematically analyzes the internal laws and development and change characteristics of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade in recent years,combined with the mechanism of weakening the preprocessing data of buffer operator in grey system theory prediction modeling technology and the mechanism of Markov chain correcting residuals,The new grey combined predicting model is constructed to predict the data of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade development.Through the test,the accuracy of the model is about one level,and the average relative errors of the new grey combined predicting model for the number of China-Europe Railway Express trains and volume,as well as the total total imports and exports and total net weight between China and Europe are 0.638%,0.866%,1.263% and 0.614% respectively,At the same time,compared with the simulation accuracy of the grey predicting model before optimization,the results show that the new grey combined predicting model has better simulation and prediction performance;Secondly,according to the dissipative structure theory and grey correlation entropy theory,this paper constructs a coordination discrimination model,and makes a discrimination study on the coordination between China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade development according to the actual data and reasonable prediction data of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade development,so as to analyze the coordinated and orderly development of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade since the launch of China-Europe Railway Express.According to the results of the coordination discrimination model,there is a certain disharmony between the development of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade from 2015 to 2019,while the development of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade shows a coordinated and stable state from 2012 to 2014 and 2020 to2025;it is predicted that in the next few years the coordinated development of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade will reach the peak in 2022;Finally,according to the research results of the new grey combined predicting model and the coordination discrimination model,this paper puts forward five suggestions for the future coordinated development of China-Europe Railway Express and China-Europe trade: the coordinated development of the operation capacity of China-Europe Railway Express operation channel,the coordinated development of the transit capacity of China-Europe Railway Express operation hub,the coordinated development countermeasures of the customs clearance capacity of China-Europe Railway Express border ports Coordinated development of China-Europe Railway Express operation business connection capability and China-Europe Railway Express operation information sharing capability.