Research And Application Of Electricity Sales Forecast In BB District Based On Data Mining

At present,in view of the continuous development of the power industry,the management of power supply companies is different,and the power industry is also facing more and more decision-making problems.Therefore,based on all kinds of electricity sales data accumulated in the history of power supply companies,finding out the valuable information through data mining will become an important work to support the decision-making analysis and improve the management of power supply companies.At the same time,the data of electricity sales is an important reflection of the economic development of a region.The amount of electricity sales in the region in the future period is an important data support for the policy-making of relevant government departments and power supply companies,and is closely related to the power purchase plan and arrangement decisions of power supply companies.Therefore,it is imperative to forecast electricity sales based on data mining.This paper studies the theoretical basis of data mining and electricity sales forecasting,and analyzes the application of data mining technology in electricity sales forecasting.Combined with the relevant index requirements of the State Grid Corporation of China for the prediction of electricity sales,according to the prediction examples of BB power supply company in recent two years,this paper analyzes the problems faced by bb power supply company in the prediction of electricity sales,and puts forward a solution to improve the accuracy of BB power supply company’s prediction of electricity sales by building annual and monthly prediction models.In terms of annual power sales forecast,through the classified analysis of the power consumption of different power consumption categories of BB power supply company,the factors affecting the power sales of BB power supply company are found.At the same time,combined with the historical data of BB District statistical yearbook,the factors affecting the power sales of BB power supply company are quantified into 9Yearbook parameters,so as to establish the annual power sales forecast model of BB district.In terms of monthly electricity sales forecast,because the electricity sales in different months of each year have the same trend,the time series method is used to build the monthly electricity sales forecast model.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the designed annual and monthly prediction model meets the accuracy requirements of electricity sales prediction,which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the model,changes the extensive management mode of electricity sales prediction of BB power supply company,and improves the management level of the company.