Simulation Research On Social Conflict Of Large-scale Engineering Projects Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid advancement of my country’s urbanization process,the number of large-scale engineering projects in construction,transportation,water conservancy and other fields continues to increase,and the construction speed continues to accelerate.Large-scale engineering projects have a high degree of complexity,a wide range of influence,and many factors involved,and have potential negative externalities,which can not only promote the development of the local economy and society,but also have a negative impact on the local living environment.In recent years,people’s awareness of rights protection and environmental protection has begun to awaken,and social conflicts caused by the unbalanced distribution of interests among stakeholders are increasing day by day,bringing many serious problems to the society.Under the new normal,social conflicts in large-scale engineering projects are of high frequency,intensity,and dynamics.Therefore,how to prevent and manage social conflicts in large-scale engineering projects has become a hot issue in social governance.This paper first combs the current research status of social conflicts in large-scale engineering projects based on the literature,and determines the research direction and content of this paper.Secondly,it expounds the definition and characteristics of large-scale engineering projects,social conflict theory,stakeholder theory,social combustion theory and system dynamics theory.Then,according to the development logic of public events,the social conflict of large-scale engineering projects is divided into three stages:germination,development and decline,and the main body of the conflict is identified.Based on the results of the questionnaire survey,the influencing factors were screened and optimized,and an index system was established.Using the method of system dynamics,the four conflicting subjects of the government,construction units,the public and other organizations are used as subsystems to form a causal circuit diagram.The sequence relationship analysis method and the expert scoring method are used to determine the variable parameters,and the system dynamics equation is established.The internal logic formed by the transformation of social conflicts in large-scale engineering projects is completed,and the construction of the system dynamics model is completed.Taking the event of a large-scale waste incineration plant in Xintian,Hunan as the simulation object,the model data is adjusted to conform to the development process of the event.The model is used for simulation analysis,and some influencing factors are selected to compare the influence of theoretical value and actual value on the change of social conflict state."Site selection","interest compensation mechanism","Internet public opinion dissemination","number of rumors","media coverage" need to be improved.Finally,according to the results of the simulation analysis,the paper puts forward the following five perspectives:"improve the scientificity of project site selection","strengthen the construction of institutionalized exchange platform","improve interest appeal channels","improve interest compensation mechanism" and "pay attention to public opinion supervision and management".The countermeasures and suggestions for the management of social conflicts in large-scale engineering projects are presented.By constructing a system dynamics model,this paper studies the evolution mechanism of social conflict in large-scale engineering projects,and analyzes the dynamic relationship between the influencing factors.Based on the simulation case,the key factors of conflict formation are explored,which is conducive to promoting the government to take targeted measures,improve the ability to resolve social conflicts,and promote social harmony and stability and sustainable economic development.