Value Evaluation Of New Engery Vehicle Based On Real Option Theory

Due to the rapid development of domestic new energy vehicles and the uncertainty of policy orientation and technical route,starting from the industrial policy and development status of new energy vehicles,the paper evaluates the value of new energy vehicle investment projects based on the real option value theory,and makes an in-depth data analysis on the parameters affecting the real option value evaluation,This paper establishes the evaluation model of the value of the basic option project of new energy,further studies the option value of the three new energy technology paths according to the sales volume and development path prediction of the three new energy technology paths,and draws relevant conclusions and policy suggestions.Combined with the comparison of income method,expand the application of real option in new energy vehicles.The target asset present value model is established to quickly predict the project present value based on real options from the perspective of investors.In the present value model,by introducing the theory of silberstone curve,the minimum effective scale theory(MES)assumes the average price of silberstone curve,the return point of option scale,and the net profit margin calculated according to the option based on the model price of MES,so as to build a set of project price evaluation model based on the annual sales volume of automobiles.For the automobile sales volume which has the greatest impact on cash flow,a sales volume multi factor prediction model is established.The sales proportion and option value proportion of pure electric vehicles,hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles in the next 15 years are obtained.It makes a forward-looking forecast on how to allocate the proportion of R & D and investment.Based on the multi factor sales forecasting model,enterprises can adjust the sales proportion of each technical route according to the changes of each influencing factor,so as to affect the option value proportion of each route.Based on the asset present value model,this paper calculates the value of the basic option project of new energy vehicles,and further analyzes and calculates the vehicle investment project value of three technical routes: hybrid electric vehicle,pure electric vehicle and hydrogen fuel cell.The research results show that the asset present value model for the project value of different technology paths of new energy vehicles can quickly predict the project present value based on real options from the perspective of investors.The investment and production strategies of new energy vehicle enterprises are summarized.The sales trend and option value trend of the three new energy technology paths are predicted.