Study On The Demand And Shared Willingness Of Ride-hailing Before And After The COVID-19

With the development of the sharing economy,ride-hailing has gradually become a supplementary form and alternative to other transportation modes.However,the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has had a huge impact on online ride-hailing services.Exploring the temporal and spatial characteristics of ride-hailing trips and the factors that affect the willingness to pool during the epidemic period can provide a certain reference for the construction of the transportation security system during the public safety emergency period.In order to discover the changes in ride-hailing and shared willingness before and after the epidemic,the transportation network company(NTC)data released by Chicago,the United States is used by prophet model to predict the demand of ride-hailing under normal conditions.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Summarize the relevant literature on the study of transportation during the epidemic period,the forecast of demand of ride-hailing,and the factors affecting willingness to pool.(2)Overview of the study area and analysis of the time and space characteristics of ride-hailing and shared willingness.(3)Based on the Prophet model,use historical trips data(2018-2019)to predict the number of ride-hailing trips in the six months of 2020,and provide data support for comparing changes in ride-hailing trips before and after the epidemic.(4)Taking the ratio of the actual number of ride-hailing trips(the actual number of trips willing to pool)in 2020 and the predicted number of trips(the predicted number of trips willing to pool)as the object,a Fractional Regression model was established to analyze the difference in the number of ride-hailing trips(the number of trips willing to share rides)before and after the epidemic.(5)Taking the willingness to pool in ride-hailing trips as the object,through the Spatial Autoregressive model,identify changes in the correlation between external environmental factors(such as residential land,commercial land,car-free households,education and income)and willingness to pool before and after the epidemic.The results show that the number of ride-hailing trips after the epidemic was significantly lower than before the epidemic,and residents were less willing to share rides in ride-hailing.During the epidemic,the demand for ride-hailing by highly educated users was relatively small.There is a negative correlation between the proportion of households with two cars and the explained variable,indicating that during the epidemic,households with cars are less likely to use ride-hailing.Also,families with higher incomes are less willing to during the epidemic.In addition,judging from the results of the Moran index,there is a clear spatial correlation of shared willingness.The results of the spatial lag model and the spatial error model show that in areas with high employment and large commercial and residential ratios,residents will be less willing to share rides when use ride-hailing on weekdays during the epidemic period.For low-income families,whether it is before or after the epidemic,the willingness to share rides in ride-hailing is relatively high.