Research On Private Car Travel Behavior Based On Long-term Trajectory Data

In the context of the surge in the number of private cars,the conflict between urban traffic demand and urban road resources is becoming increasingly obvious.This brings serious economic losses,environmental pollution and even public health problems,therefore,people put forward higher requirements for traffic management.This requires people to understand the spatial and temporal behavior patterns and rules of private car travel and to grasp the rules of private car travel.This paper takes the travel behavior of private cars as the research object,with the help of global positioning system(GPS)information data collection method,analyzes and excavates the potential laws of residents’ travel characteristics and long-term travel mode,and uses these laws to build a prediction model of private car travel behavior,comprehensively considering personal attributes and interpreting travel mechanism.Firstly,this paper empirically analyzes the time characteristics of individual private car travel behavior dynamics based on the long-term trajectory data of private car GPS in Aichi County,and draws the conclusion that people’s private car travel behavior presents "power-law dissipation" and has weak memory at the individual level,and constructs a method to identify the change of long-term individual private car travel behavior pattern,and puts forward a robust Bayesian model Pattern recognition model.Furthermore,through empirical research,this paper finds that people’s private car travel behavior pattern will change in a certain period of time,and there is a certain positive correlation between the time dimension and space dimension of private car travel.Finally,considering that people’s travel behavior has certain behavior characteristics,this paper develops a travel time expenditure prediction model considering the change of personal long-term private car travel behavior mode to predict people’s private car travel time expenditure,and finds that people’s travel time expenditure is not stable.Although the data of this paper comes from Japan,considering the commonality of urban development,the research theory and method have certain portability.At the same time,the empirical results also reflect the law of private car travel behavior at the individual level.