Vertical Integration Of The Pig Industry Chain Under The Impact Of African Swine Fever

My country is a major pork producer and consumer in the world.With the development of social economy and the improvement of people’s living standards,the demand for pork products is increasing rapidly,and my country’s pig industry has entered a period of rapid development.The current occurrence of ASF has seriously threatened the sustained and high-quality development of my country’s pig industry.Since the outbreak of the ASF epidemic in August 2018,it has affected multiple links in the upper and lower reaches of the pig industry chain.Coupled with the impact of multiple superimposed factors such as environmental protection,prohibition of breeding,restriction of breeding,capacity reduction,and backward facilities and equipment,the main body of breeding has been weak in replenishment,Poor transportation in the production and sales area,and limited live pig market adjustment capabilities have made the situation of live pig production complicated and severe,and the decline in production capacity is rare.The ASF epidemic has brought new challenges to the development of the pig industry.In order to stabilize pork supply,relevant policies such as "six stability" and "six guarantees" must be implemented.The vertical integration of the pig industry chain will be the main driver of development at this stage.".First of all,on the basis of combing domestic and foreign literature,this article analyzes the status quo of the vertical integration of the pig industry chain before and after the ASF impact through transaction cost theory,industrial organization theory,and value chain theory.The analysis results show that the factors affecting the vertical integration of the pig industry chain under the impact of ASF are large market price fluctuations,rapid changes in the pig industry pattern,and repeated adjustments in industrial policies.Under the normalization of ASF,the vertical integration of the industrial chain has become one of the important development models of my country’s pig industry.Subsequently,the data of 12 listed live pig companies from 2012 to2019 were selected as samples to calculate the degree of vertical integration of the industrial chain,and to compare and analyze the calculation results.Finally,using breakpoint regression to verify whether the forward and backward integration of the pig industry chain is affected by ASF.Select variables by combing the factors that influence the degree of vertical integration of the industrial chain,and use the panel Tobit estimation method to analyze the impact of asset specific variables,transaction uncertainty variables,and transaction frequency variables on the degree of vertical integration of the industrial chain.The results show that:(1)The degree of vertical integration of the pig industry chain in my country has shown an upward trend.In a subdivision comparison,the degree of backward integration is higher than that of forward,and the impact of ASF has different effects on the degree of vertical integration of the subjects of each link.(2)Use breakpoint regression to model the degree of forward and backward integration of the pig industry chain.Theoretically,the various indicators meet the model assumptions,and the conclusions are statistically significant;in fact,the verification results are consistent with the trend of economic phenomena and can show the characteristics of cliff-like changes in the degree of vertical integration of the birth pig industry chain.The specific conclusion is: ASF inhibits the improvement of the forward integration of the pig industry chain and promotes the improvement of the backward integration.(3)After the outbreak of ASF,the legal system environment and market demand have a significant impact on the forward integration of the pig industry chain.The legal system environment has a positive impact and market demand has a negative impact.(4)After the outbreak of ASF,income uncertainty,legal system environment,and market demand have a significant negative correlation with the backward integration of the pig industry chain.There is a significant positive correlation with the degree of integration.Therefore,in order to reduce the negative impact of ASF on the vertical integrated development of the pig industry chain,government functional departments should stabilize the market price of pigs by constructing a docking system for production and sales areas,and at the same time adjust the industrial structure while improving the financing environment.In view of the different factors affecting the degree of front and back integration,the government and the main body of the pig industry chain should take different measures and countermeasures.