| Based on the analysis of regional meteorological factors and hydrological factors,surface water and groundwater models in the Bosten Lake Basin were constructed,and the surface water simulation results were used as the boundary conditions of the groundwater study region.According to the simulation results,the proportion of each water balance element in groundwater is quantitatively analyzed,which provides technical support for the efficient development,utilization and protection of water resources in the study area.At the same time,according to the forecast extended meteorological and hydrological data and different scenarios,the future changes of groundwater level and water balance items in the study area are predicted.The main research results are as follows:(1)Using linear trend method,Mann-Kcndall non-paramctric test method and wavelet analysis method,the trend,mutation and periodicity of precipitation,evaporation and runoff in the Bosten Lake Basin were comprehensively analyzed,and the change rules of major meteorological factors and hydrological elements in the Bosten Lake Basin were explored.The results showed that:Precipitation and runoff in the Bosten Lake Basin showed a trend of slow increase,while annual evaporation showed a trend of slow decrease,and both of them had a periodic change rule.(2)According to the study area runoff process simulated by SWAT model,the measured runoff from January 2001 to December 2003 was substituted into SWAT-CUP software and the SUFI-2 algorithm was used to conduct sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the established surface water model.The measured runoff from January 2004 to December 2010 was used to verify the simulation results of the three basins.The R2 was 0.802,0.798 and 0.755,and the ENS was 0.78,0.76 and 0.61,respectively.It shows that the simulation results of this model can reflect the actual variation trend of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin,Huangshuigou River Basin and Qingshuihe River Basin.(3)The hydrogeological conceptual model of the study area is constructed and the grid of the study area is divided.The source and sink terms are analyzed and calculated according to the water cycle of the study area and the groundwater model of the study area is established.The measured groundwater level from January 2001 to December 2003 was brought into the Visual Modflow model for comparison and analysis with the simulated values,and the model parameters were adjusted.The measured groundwater level from January 2004 to December 2010 was used to verify the simulation results.The relative errors of the three representative Wells were 0.12,0.17 and 0.10,and the root mean square errors were 0.39,0.35 and 0.23,respectively,which were all small.The correlation coefficients of the three representative Wells are 0.675,0.710 and 0.681 respectively,all greater than 0.5,indicating that the established groundwater model in the study area can predict the variation of groundwater level.(4)According to the characteristics of meteorological factors and hydrological elements in the Boston Lake Basin,the trend,mutation and periodicity of annual rainfall,evaporation and runoff are respectively extended and predicted to 2025.Combined with the forecast of meteorological factors and hydrological characteristics and the needs of urban planning and social development in the study area,three different scenarios were developed,and the three different scenarios were brought into the model for simulation,and the influence of different scenarios was analyzed according to the simulation results.According to the prediction results of three different scenarios,it can be seen that the trend of groundwater flow field in the downward study area does not change in general under the three scenarios.At the same time,the groundwater level changes of typical representative well GW-17#under the three schemes are analyzed.In order to improve the current situation of land salinization in the study area,the third groundwater exploitation scheme is adopted. |
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