Research On The Allocation Of Pediatric Resources In Beijing Under The Two-child Policy

In recent years,the problem of insufficient pediatric resources and inefficient allocation in Beijing has become increasingly prominent,and the problem of difficult pediatric medical treatment has become increasingly prominent.On January 1,2016,the"comprehensive two-child" policy has implemented nationwide.The implementation of this policy will lead to a change in the size of the birth population and bring greater pressure to the pediatric medical service.The contradiction between supply and demand arising from the adjustment of the population policy and the shortage of existing pediatric resources will bring more severe tests to the allocation of pediatric resources.The allocation of pediatric resources is closely related to the changes in the population of children aged 0-14.The number of children directly affects the rational allocation of pediatricians and resources in various regions of Beijing.Therefore,it is very important to do a good job in the prediction of the child population.In this paper,the Leslie matrix population prediction model is firstly established,and the sensitivity analysis of the fertility rate parameter in the model is carried out in combination with the influence of the two-child policy to predict the child population in Beijing in the next 10 years,and the prediction results are analyzed and compared.Then the grey neural network model is used to predict the changes of pediatricians in Beijing in the next 10 years.The prediction results show that the number of pediatricians in Beijing cannot meet the increasing demand for services.Then,this paper uses DEA method to study the current situation of pediatric resource allocation in Beijing.The study found that Shijingshan District has invalid resource allocation.At the same time,the pediatric resource allocation among districts in Beijing is not balanced and there is a waste of resources.Finally,it is pointed out that the input of pediatricians should be strengthened to meet the increasing demand for children’s services.At the same time,on the basis of satisfying the service demand,we should reasonably allocate the pediatric beds and human resources,to prevent the waste of pediatric resources,and pay attention to improving the efficiency of resource utilization.