The Accounting Analysis And Forecast Study Of Guangxi Total Expenditure On Health

Objective: To describe and Analysis Guangxi total expenditure on health accounting results from 2002 to 2014,to understand the growth of Guangxi total expenditure on health and financing constitute circumstances;to analyze the influence factors of Guangxi total expenditure on health according 2002--2014 Guangxi health-related historical data;to explore application of system dynamics simulation model to forcast expenditure on health forecast,and forecast the development trend of Guangxi total expenditure on health from 2015 to 2017,this study aimed to provide some theoretical basis and policy recommendations for future health economic policies formulation and perfect health resources,so as to promote the regional economic development.Methods: The databases of total expendture on health was established by Excel 2013,to describe the total expenditure on health of Guangxi from 2002 to 2014;On the basis of literature study and theoretical analysis,principal component analysis was applied to analyze the influence factors of total expenditure on health of Guangxi through SPSS16.0.Ssystem dynamics simulation model was established by the software of vensim PEL5.8,to simulation the total expenditure on health in Guangxi and forecast development trend of Guangxi total expenditure on health from 2015 to 2017.Results: 1.Guangxi total expenditure on health increased from 10.447 billion in 2002 to 90.806 billion in 2014,according to current prices,the average annual growth rate was 19.75%.The proportion of total expenditure on health to GDP rose from 4.14% in 2002 to 5.79% in 2014;Per capita total expenditure on health rose from 216.66 yuan in 2002 to 1910.10 yuan in 2014,the average annual growth rate was 19.89%;2002--2014 years,the largest health consumption elasticity coefficient was 2.12(2003),and the minimum was 0.34(2006),the proportion of person out-of-pocket health expenditure,social health expenditure and government health expenditure was 52:24:24 in 2002,and the proportion was28:32:40 in 2014.2.Through theoretical analysis and principal component analysis,the proportion of elderly,proportion of urban population,per capita GDP,the income level,health resources,living standards and level of social health insurance were found to have important impact on the trend of the development of total expenditure on health.3.When the system dynamics simulation model was established,the 2011,2012,2013 and 2014 Guangxi total expenditure on health was forecast by using the dadas of 2010,2011,2012 and 2013.The projection results of 2011,2012,2013 and 2014 was 67.59 billion yuan,78.674 billion yuan,84.316 billion yuan and91.084 billion yuan respectively.Compared with reported values,the error values was 1.023 billion yuan,0.427 billion yuan,0.507 billion yuan and 0.278 billion yuan.The relative average error value was only 0.579 billion yuan,which was0.70% of three-year average report value.4.Used the system dynamics simulation model to forecast the total expenditure on health of Guangxi from 2015 to 2017,2015 was 99.4051 billion yuan,2016 was107.23 billion yuan,2017 was 112.63 billion yuan.The proportion of Guangxi total expenditure on health to GDP between 5.80%-5.95% in 2015 –2017.The proportion of person out-of-pocket health expenditure to total expenditure on health from 27.64% in 2015 to 26.77% in 2017.The propirtion of social health expenditure to total expenditure on health was 32.85% in 2015 and 2017 was32.60%.The proportion of government health expenditure to total expenditure on health increased from 39.45% in 2015 to 40.62% in 2017.Conclusions: 1 From 2002 to 2013,The total expenditure on health of Guangxi increased year by year,but the Guangxi per capita total expenditure on health was lower than the national average,the total expenditure on health financing constitutes was less reasonable.2.The total expenditure on health was implicated by population,economy,social security,health resources and other factors.3.The system dynamics simulation model was suitable for forecasting total expenditure on health,and the prediction found that 2015--2017 Guangxi total expenditure on health maintained a high growth rate.