| From a national perspective,the medical consumption of our residents will continue to grow in the future for the following reasons:First,from the perspective of the proportion of the elderly population,as of 2018,China’s population over 65 years old accounted for 11.4%,leaving the aging society The difference is only 2.6%,and the life expectancy of the population is increased to 77 years,and the healthy life expectancy is 68.7 years,which means that there is at least 8 years of illness,and the environmental pollution and work pressure are high,which virtually increases the physical and psychological problems of residents.The risk of disease,and the increase of age also increases the latent period and incidence of disease.In the future,people will have to deal with the increasing risk of disease.Second,domestic medical expenses have surged in recent years.According to the data released by the Collaborative Innovation Center for Health Risk Early Warning and Governance,the average annual growth rate of medical expenses per capita in China from 1991 to 2013 was 17.49%,which far exceeded the GDP growth during the same period.If the policy environment remains unchanged,it is expected that by 2020,China’s medical expenses will maintain an average annual growth rate of 12.08%to 18.16%.Third,China’s social medical insurance has a low degree of protection.In 2018,the number of people participating in urban basic medical insurance in China was 1.344 billion,the total expenditure on urban basic medical insurance was 17823 billion yuan,and the per capita expenditure was 1326.17 yuan.This amount can only make up for daily minor illnesses.However,in the face of major diseases,it is not enough.Residents still have to bear huge medical expenses themselves.Without other safeguards,people can only make up for preventive savings to make up for future uncertain medical expenditures,which will crowd out other aspects of household consumption expenditures,thereby reducing the overall consumption level.As far as the situation in Henan is concerned,in 2018,the proportion of the population over the age of 65 in the province has exceeded 10%.The aging rate is gradually increasing,but the development level of health insurance is lower than the national average.In addition,the data shows that the consumption level of Henan urban residents reached 25,593 yuan in 2017.Although this reflects,to a certain extent,the consumption level of Henan Province is rising,but because Henan is a populous province located in the Central Plains,compared with the developed provinces along the coast,the consumption pattern is slightly traditional,and the consumption level continues to remain low.Considering that manpower and consumption are important factors driving economic development,this article will focus on whether the development of commercial health insurance can promote consumption.In the theoretical part of this article,the supplementary role of commercial health insurance in the medical security system is first clarified-mainly to supplement the coverage and level of protection.Through the method of comparative analysis,the gap between Henan commercial health insurance and the national level is clarified,and the development models of commercial health insurance with Henan characteristics-Xinxiang model,Luoyang model and Zhengzhou model are explained in turn.Then,from the perspective of per capita expenditure level,comparison with the national consumption level,consumption structure and other dimensions,the consumption level of urban residents in Henan Province was analyzed,and the following conclusions were drawn:according to clothing,food,housing,transportation,When subdividing the eight dimensions of education,medical care,communication and other dimensions,it is found that there is crowding out between consumption,that is,expenditures on education and medical projects will have a run-on effect on other types of expenditures.The reason is that the level of social security is insufficient As well as the uncertainty of education and medical expenditures,people tend to make preventive savings,thereby reducing current consumption expenditures.In the subsequent empirical analysis,the insurance density of health insurance is used as the independent variable,the consumption level is the dependent variable,and the factors such as education level,social security level,and aging level are set as the control variables,and 2006-2017 Henan Province 18 is used.The data of individual cities are combined with the fixed effect and dynamic GMM analysis to analyze the pulling effect of commercial health insurance in Henan Province on the consumption level of urban residents.Then,in order to conduct the robustness test,the explanatory variable is replaced by the consumption rate.The explanatory variable is replaced by insurance depth IP,and the control variable is replaced by income growth rate and elderly dependency ratio of disposable income and the proportion of elderly population,so that fixed effect and dynamic GMM regression are performed again.The results show that health insurance promotes consumption.Between disposable income and social medical insurance.In addition,among the four types of consumption of clothing,food,housing,and transportation,the development of health insurance has the most obvious promotion effect on residential consumption.Based on this,this article puts forward policy recommendations that should vigorously develop commercial health insurance,increase product coverage and increase product coverage,and guide urban residents to change their consumption patterns in Henan Province. |
