| Objective The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the global burden of disease data(GBD)2019 thyroid cancer incidence and mortality trends in China from 1990 to 2019;the age-period-cohort model was established based on the data on the incidence of thyroid cancer in China from1990 to 2019 to analyze the thyroid gland Epidemiological characteristics of cancer incidence trends;A case-control investigation and research methods was selected to analyze the risk factors of thyroid cancer.In order to provide reference and basis for scientific prevention and incidence prediction of thyroid cancer in the future,and provide support for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies.Methods(1)This study extracts data on the incidence and death of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease Data(GBD)from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation(IHME)website of the University of Washington,USA,and carry out two researches:(1)Use the Joinpoint regression model to analyze APC and AAPC and other indicators,describe the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in segments,and analyze its trend over time;(2)Use Stata software to construct an age-period-cohort model(APC model)for analysis age effect,period effect and cohort effect of the risk of thyroid cancer;(2)Analyzing the cause of the disease through a case-control study of thyroid cancer.The study adopted a 1:1 case-control study method and selected 186 female thyroid cancer inpatients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanhua University in accordance with the standards of inclusion and discharge,and selected surgical patients of the same age Inpatients with no thyroid disease(±3 years old)were matched(186 persons).The staff collected data according to a specially designed questionnaire and a one-to-one telephone interview to conduct a retrospective survey method,and analyzed the risk factors of female thyroid cancer using SPSS19.0.Results(1)From 1990 to 2019,the average annual growth rate of the standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in the total population,men,and women in China was 2.47%,3.98%,and 1.65%,respectively,suggesting that the standardized incidence of thyroid cancer showed a significant upward trend,and the average annual increase in men The trend is higher than that of women,and the gap in the incidence of thyroid cancer between men and women is narrowing.The standardized rate of thyroid cancer in the Chinese population experienced three transitions from 1990 to 2019.The statistically significant changes were 1990～2005,2005～2011,and 2016～2019,which increased gradually by 2.29%,4.84%,and 2.72%,respectively..The annual average growth rates of the standardized mortality rates of the total population of thyroid cancer in China,men and women are-2.09%,1.40%,and-1.70%respectively,suggesting that the standardized mortality rate of thyroid cancer is on the decline,the mortality rate of men is on the rise,and the death rate of women is increasing.Shows a downward trend.There are three turning points in the mortality rate of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019.The change segments are divided by turning points.The rate of change decreased at a rate of 1.14% and 1.41% in 1990～1998 and 2011～2019 respectively,while in1998～2008 and 2008～2011,it increased gradually at the rate of 0.42% and2.70% each year.(2)Fitting the APC model to the incidence data of gender thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019,it is found that the age effect of women is rising-falling-rising-falling with age,and the two peak age groups are40-year-old age group and 60-year age group.In the age group,the male age effect increased with age before 59 years old,and then showed a downward trend,but reached the highest incidence at 79 years old;the cohort effect of the risk of thyroid cancer in men and women showed a downward trend as the cohort increased.In the birth cohort between 1911 and 1915,the risk of thyroid cancer reached its highest value;over time,the risk of thyroid cancer in men and women increased.(3)The single-factor result shows the place of residence,BMI,passive smoking,use of hair dye,eating fresh fruits and vegetables,eating high-fat food,sleep pattern,and annual CT examination,age at menarche,etc.are risk factors for female thyroid cancer.Logistic regression analysis was performed on the single factors selected initially,and the results showed that BMI(≥28),use of hair dye,eat more fresh fruits and vegetables,abortion,receive CT examinations every year,age at menarche(>13)Years old),breast disease,and family history of malignant tumors are risk factors for female thyroid cancer.Conclusion(1)From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in China has shown a significant upward trend.The average annual increase in men is higher than that of women,and the incidence of thyroid cancer in women higher than that of women;the standardized mortality of thyroid cancer has shown a downward trend,and the mortality rate of men is On an upward trend,women show a downward trend.(2)The APC model shows that the age effect is manifested as the high incidence of women in the 40-year-old age group and 60-year-old age group,and men in the 55-and 75-year age groups;the cohort effect decreased the risk of thyroid cancer in men and women;The time effect shows that the risk of thyroid cancer in men and women increases over time.(3)Obesity,miscarriage,Use hair dye every year,annual CT examination,salty food taste,family history of malignant tumors may be risk factors for female thyroid cancer,and late menarche may be a protective factor for female thyroid cancer. |
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