The Impat Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty On The China’s Art Asset Price

After the global economic crisis in 2008,the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty has received widespread attention from scholars and has been "rediscovered" in related theories.Economists such as Knight and Keynes have studied the existence and definition of uncertainty in the last century,and conducted theoretical analysis of its impact.However,the measurement of macroeconomic uncertainty is always the key to affecting research progress.With the advancement of information technology and statistical methods,scholars have carried out measurement research on multiple data levels based on the definition and generation of uncertainty and made significant progress,making the theory of macroeconomic uncertainty in terms of transmission mechanisms and economic impacts and a lot of empirical research emerged.With the rapid development of China’s economy,people’s pursuit of a better life is no longer limited to material satisfaction,but spiritual needs.According to foreign development experience,the capita GDP of more than 5,000 US dollars will increase the consumption of the cultural industry,and China’s capita GDP in 2019 has exceeded the 10,000 US dollar mark.In the report of the 16 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,we first proposed the reform of the cultural system.In the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,we emphasized cultural self-confidence and fostered new formats of the cultural market.Vigorously developing the cultural industry has become a new policy direction.Driven by both economy and policy,China’s art investment market has developed rapidly.In 2019,it has become the world’s second largest trading market,and art assets have become new choices and allocation targets for investors.Therefore,in the context of widespread macroeconomic uncertainty,studying its impact on the price of art assets can not only enrich the uncertainty theory and art finance theory,but also guide investors to make rational decisions and promote the healthy and orderly development of the art investment market.This article conducts research in accordance with the steps of "proposing questions-theoretical analysis-determining models-exploring results-conclusions andsuggestions".First of all,by combing and summarizing the literature,a basic understanding of the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty,the impact of macroeconomic variables on the return of art assets,and the construction of the art price index is formed.Second,analyze the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the price of art assets from the theory of adaptive expectations,limited rational decision theory,and irrational behavior theory,and put forward theoretical assumptions.Third,based on the repetitive transaction model,the Chinese art painting auction transaction data is used to construct an art asset price index.Fourth,through comparative analysis of different measurement methods,the conditional variance of the actual GDP growth rate extracted using the GARCH(1.1)model is determined as a proxy variable for China’s macroeconomic uncertainty.Fifth,from the perspective of dynamic correlation,use the DCC-GARCH model to study the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the price of art assets.It is generally positively correlated within the statistical interval and has strong time-varying characteristics.At a lower degree of uncertainty,the two are negatively correlated,and at a higher degree of uncertainty,a positive correlation.The empirical results are basically consistent with the theoretical assumptions.Finally,based on the conclusions,some policy suggestions are proposed for the rational prosperity of the art investment market in China.