The Effect Of Expectation On Inter-temporal Decision Making

Intertemporal decision-making is a kind of decision-making behavior that individuals make by weighing the cost and profit and loss at different time points.In recent years,more and more scholars have explored the impact of expectations on intertemporal decision-making.Future self continuity is closely related to expectations and intertemporal decision-making,but no one has explored the possible role of future self continuity in it.Based on the motivation of self enhancement,this study proposes the possible impact of future self continuity on the expected situation and intertemporal decision-making.Based on the theory of life history,researchers believe that the different perceived sense of control caused by childhood environment will affect the intertemporal decision-making.Therefore,based on the theory of life history,this paper studies the future self continuity,sense of control and motivational control strategies by referring to the relevant literature of previous scholars in the field of expected scenarios and intertemporal decision-making.Through three studies,the hypothesis and research model proposed in this paper are verified.In Experiment 1,we tested the mediating effect of future self continuity in the effect of scenario foresight on intertemporal decision-making;in Experiment 2,we tested the moderating effect of sense of control in the effect of scenario foresight on intertemporal decision-making through future self continuity;in Experiment 3,we tested the moderating effect of sense of control by manipulating sense of control.The results show that:(1)The valence of expectation scenario affects the intertemporal decision-making preference,in which future self continuity plays a mediating role: in the positive expectation scenario,out of self enhancement motivation,the individual’s future self continuity is higher,his perceived future self psychological distance is closer,and he prefers recent options.(2)Sense of control plays a moderating role in the indirect influence of expected situation on intertemporal decision-making through future self continuity: in negative situation,when individuals perceive low sense of control,future self continuity is lower and they prefer short-term options;in negative situation,when individuals perceive high sense of control,future self continuity is relatively higher and they prefer long-term options;while in negative situation,when individuals perceive high sense of control,they prefer long-term options There was no significant difference in future self continuity and intertemporal decision-making preference between individuals with different perceived sense of control under positive situation.This study introduces future self continuity,explores the influence mechanism of scenario foresight on intertemporal decision-making from a new perspective,verifies the mediating role of future self continuity,and verifies the regulatory role of sense of control combined with life history theory,so as to further deepen the understanding of the psychological mechanism of intertemporal decision-making.