| With the development of aging,a large number of elderly groups and disabled groups have generated a large number of demands for medical and nursing care and other old-age service resources.However,the contradiction is that the elderly have a low income after they quit the labor market,and it is difficult for them to pay the high medical and nursing costs.In particular,disabled groups are trapped in poverty.At the same time,with the social development,family size miniaturization,young people due to reasons such as work migration,it is difficult to assume the responsibility of old-age service providers,make family endowment function gradually decay,this is exacerbated by the pressure of pension services for seniors,make endowment service suppliers from home to the state and society.Therefore,it is necessary to construct reasonable and scientific pension service subsidy payment conditions to guarantee the old people’s life in their old age and improve the social security system.On the basis of sorting out the current situation and problems of pension service subsidy payment conditions in China,this paper reconstructs the pension service subsidy types and payment conditions in China according to Titmuss social welfare tripartite method.Will pension service subsidy is divided into three kinds,are respectively: moderate universal pension service subsidy,gradually fill the gap model pension service subsidy,special contribution pension service subsidy.The pension service subsidy payment conditions are divided into four categories,respectively: age conditions,health conditions,economic conditions and other conditions.Under the institutional framework of the above "three types of subsidies + four payment conditions",the scheme of payment conditions of each type of pension service subsidy is designed one by one,and the scale of subsidy objects,the amount of subsidy costs and the financial feasibility under different subsidy conditions are calculated.First of all,the number of pension service subsidies in China is predicted.PADIS-INT population prediction software is used to predict the number and structure of the elderly population in China from 2019 to 2050.CHARLS data is used to calculate the transfer probability of the elderly health status by using Markov model,and the number of pension service subsidy recipients under different payment conditions in the future is obtained.Secondly,according to Solow’s model,it calculates the payment standard of pension service subsidy in China in the future,and obtains the pension service subsidy cost under different payment conditions in the future.Finally,according to the proportion of pension service subsidy cost in fiscal revenue,the financial feasibility of pension service subsidy scheme under different payment conditions is analyzed.Based on this,this paper puts forward the corresponding suggestion: build subsidies endowment service system framework,clear endowment service nature and the goal,the central strengthen pension service allowance payment conditions to guide,define pension service allowance payment condition,clarify the endowment service subsidy payment of primary and secondary,to set up the old-age service allowance payment conditions dynamic adjustment mechanism,perfecting the evaluation standard payment conditions. |