| Since the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,under the leadership of the CPC Central Committee,the people’s war against drugs has started in an all-round way,and the anti-drug work has achieved phased results.However,from a nationwide perspective,the development of drug crimes in China is still grim.G-province and L-state have always been the main areas for drug transportation and trafficking.In the past ten years,drug-related crime cases have remained high,which not only seriously violated citizens’ physical and mental health,but also disrupted social order.Since 2018,G Provincial Public Security Department has asked public security organs at all levels to carry out nationwide anti-drug campaign in depth,and L State has actively responded to the call to quickly launch a crackdown on drug transportation and trafficking crimes in all counties and cities of the whole state,which has achieved certain results.However,local drug crimes are still high and repeatedly prohibited.Especially,the firsttime drug-related offenders who have been released from prison and returned to the society often take the road of drug-related crimes again due to various factors.Therefore,the research on early warning of drug-related crimes against local drug-related criminal groups can help the public security organs at all levels in L state to effectively prevent such high-risk personnel from engaging in drug-related activities again,maintain the stability of local social order,and at the same time promote the follow-up and implementation of related activities after the first-time drug-related offenders have been released from prison and re-entered the society,which has a strong practical significance for preventing and reducing the occurrence probability of local drug-related crimes.The research contents of this paper are as follows:The first chapter summarizes the research background,ideas,research innovations,and the research status of drug recidivism early warning at home and abroad.The second chapter analyzes the current situation and management dilemma of early warning of drug recidivism in L state on the basis of explaining the related theories of early warning of drug recidivism.The third chapter collects the drug-related crime cases in L state from 2016 to 2020 in China Judgment Document Network,and with the support of L state anti-drug detachment and antidrug committee office,compares the statewide drug users control database with the statewide drug offenders management system,based on the principle of non-confidentiality,extracts the information of 500 drug-related criminals from L state from 2016 to 2020 as sample data,and determines whether they are first-time offenders or recidivists.It is divided into two groups: 246 recidivists and 254 first offenders.Based on this,SPSS26.0 is used for descriptive analysis.By analyzing the characteristics of drug-related recidivists and the characteristics of cases,the influencing factors of this group’s recidivism are preliminarily obtained.In chapter four,through the difference analysis of two groups of sample data of first-time offenders and recidivists,the Logistic regression method is used to analyze that the main factors affecting the recidivism of drug-related first-time offenders include gender,whether there is a stable residence,whether there is a history of drug abuse,occupation type and education level,etc.,and the early warning regression model of drug-related recidivism is constructed according to the extracted main influencing factors.The fifth chapter,based on the results of the previous analysis,puts forward the countermeasures from the aspects of government departments,public security organs and the masses’ participation in the early warning of drug-related personnel’s recidivism in L state.The sixth chapter summarizes the whole research,points out the shortcomings of the research and looks forward to the next research. |
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