The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Employment Reallocation In Manufacturing Industry

In the context of the new normal of China’s economy,the labor market is characterized by dynamic fluctuations.Any shock to the economy,especially the exchange rate,could have a negative impact on the labor market.Exchange rate movements as an important part of economic external shocks,the impact of combining with the features of the labor market and product market structure,has important effects on the dynamic changes of the manufacturing sector employment,labor market under the impact of the exchange rate by adjusting ability and the adjustment process,may with the labor market system of its own unique choice of economies and laborer preference has a close contact.Under the background of the general trend of economic globalization and the complex international political and economic environment,it is significant for this paper to analyze the impact of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the employment reallocation of China’s manufacturing industry.In the process of research,this paper firstly sorted out the relevant researches of predecessors.This paper adopted the method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.From a qualitative perspective,the influence mechanism and correlation of RMB exchange rate on employment reallocation were discussed in detail.Again from quantitative Angle,from 1999 to 2012 released by the BIS RMB real effective exchange rate index data,and on the basis of China’s industrial enterprise database micro data to measure job creation,job destruction,and employment reallocation.The conclusions are as follows: First,when RMB exchange rate rise,China’s manufacturing sector’s employment reallocation rise,and job market volatility increased.The RMB exchange rate changes on job destruction is greater than the influence of the impact on job creation.Second,the change of RMB exchange rate has a significant impact on the employment reallocation of manufacturing enterprises in different provinces.But the impact is not significant in the eastern region.The impact in the central region is mainly from the job destruction,while the impact in the western region is from the job creation and job destruction.Third,RMB exchange rate fluctuations have a significant effect on job creation,job destruction and employment reallocation of continuous manufacturing enterprises.Further,by comparing and analyzing industrial enterprises of different capital types,industrial types,enterprise scale and registration types,this paper finds that enterprise heterogeneity plays a significant role in the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the employment reallocation of manufacturing enterprises.Moreover,among the three influencing channels of technology channel,export quantity channel and efficiency channel,the intermediary effect of export quantity channel is the most important.The innovation of this paper lies in that it uses the micro data of China’s industrial enterprise database to analyze the problem of employment reallocation from the overall level,regional level and continuous enterprise level,and further analyzes the influence of enterprise heterogeneity in this problem.Moreover,the influence channels of exchange rate on the employment reconfiguration of manufacturing industry are divided into technology channel,export quantity channel and efficiency channel,and the above channels are tested for the mediating effect.And in terms of data selection,the exchange rate of the data released by BIS RMB real effective exchange rate index,excluding the national price levels on the impact of exchange rate data,it can reflect the reality of the RMB in the international market competitiveness.The employment reallocation issues can be discussed respectively by dividing into two directions: employment creation and employment destruction.